The hits keep coming for the Razorbacks, as 2027 running back Jeremiah Dent of Marion backed off his commitment this week. He told Rivals that the Hogs’ constant rotating of backs makes it hard to get anyone into a rhythm, and he doesn’t think he’s a fit for that scheme.
Arkansas’ near-constant rotation of running backs has been a theme. When Arkansas hired running backs coach David Johnson from Florida State, FSU fans were quick to point that frustration out. I don’t usually give much credence to critiques by bitter fans of a coach’s former school, but that’s such a specific criticism.
It remains unclear why Sutton Smith is leading the team in carries, when he’s clearly been the Hogs’ worst back this year:
Smith has been the worst by every metric. All evidence suggests that Cam Settles should be the lead early down back, with Braylen Russell getting short yardage carries and more fourth-quarter carries. Instead, Russell didn’t have an official fourth-quarter carry.
In addition to the weird back rotation, there’s also a weird playcalling pattern, as X user @ArkansasQuant first noticed. On the two touchdown drives in the third quarter, the Hogs opened with 10 consecutive rushes across those two drives. One was an End Around for a 22-yard gain, but the other nine (84 yards, seven successes) were two concepts: five Off-Tackle concepts (Outside Zone) and four Leads concepts (Outside Power).
The Hogs have been trying to run Outside Zone all year, but running it as an Off Tackle concept instead of the normal OZ Split seemed to help, as Settles was able to find cutback lanes:
Leads also worked on three of four tries, once with KJ Jackson keeping, and also for the first touchdown:
Surely the Hogs kept running these two concepts until the Vols stopped it? Right?
Nope. Arkansas ran a single Off Tackle run the rest of the way and no Leads. The Off Tackle run went for eight yards. The other nine rushes after the Hogs went up 14-7 went for 19 yards.
Arkansas literally just quit calling what was working and went back to a diet consisting mostly of OZ Split, their worst-performing run concept of the season. I have no answers as to why. It makes no sense at all.
Meet the Commodores
Vanderbilt is desperately trying to build on a breakthrough season in 2025. Head coach Clark Lea suffered 2-10 (0-8) seasons in his first and third years, but then he imported key coaches and players from New Mexico State, a program that had enjoyed a breakout season under head coach Jerry Kill and quarterback Diego Pavia. Kill joined the Vanderbilt staff as an advisor, offensive coordinator Tim Beck took the same role in Nashville, and Pavia moved in to be the starter.
The Commodores went 6-6 in 2024, pulling off a stunning upset of then-#1 Alabama and showing life for the first time in a while. The follow-up came in 2025 as they went 10-2, and Pavia earned an invite to the Heisman Trophy ceremony.
With a lot of new faces, Vanderbilt is off to a 3-3 start. They slogged through two ugly wins against Austin Peay and Delaware. They then beat NC State in a thriller that featured one of the most improbable game-winners in college football history:
In SEC play, they’ve lost three straight: 21-15 to Auburn, 38-14 to Georgia, and 52-17 to Ole Miss. They could really use a win to keep the momentum gained in the Pavia era from slipping away.
When Vanderbilt has the ball
Vanderbilt’s biggest task during the offseason was finding a replacement for Pavia. They landed one of the biggest recruiting victories in school history when 5-star quarterback Jared Curtis opted to stay in Nashville, spurning Georgia.
Lea and the offensive staff eased Curtis into the starting role, opening the season with senior Blaze Berlowitz, who came from New Mexico State with Pavia. Curtis played in the first two games and took over as the starter for the NC State game.
Berlowitz struggled against Delaware, driving the shift to Curtis. Curtis was sensational against NC State in his first start, throwing for 277 yards and three touchdowns while adding 64 rushing yards. He also threw a couple picks, including one on the final drive that should have cost the Commodores the game.
That’s basically the Curtis experience. He has an NFL arm and will make jawdropping throws, but he’s also a freshman. He leads the SEC in what Tom Fornelli calls “Whoopy Daisy Rate”, which is the percentage of his snaps where he fumbles or throws a pick.
To win this game, Arkansas needs Curtis to make some mistakes.
If you look at ProFootballFocus grades, Vanderbilt isn’t giving their five-star freshman much help, especially up front. They’ve shuffled starters at multiple positions on the offensive line this season. PFF gives them a team pass block grade of 54, worst in the SEC. A lot of Curtis’s mistakes are due to the pressure he’s under.
Vanderbilt is very bad on early downs, mostly owing to a lack of explosive plays. Put Curtis into a must-pass situation and he’s capable of keeping the chains moving, but the Vandy offense falls behind way too often. Arkansas has done a pretty good job of limiting these turn-of-fortune plays (explosives on passing downs), but it has come at the cost of being awful at knocking opponents off-schedule.
If you want to be optimistic about this game, here’s a good starting place. Vanderbilt is not a run-heavy team, largely because they are struggling to generate big plays on the ground. That’s good news for Arkansas, given that the Hogs have struggled with power running teams in all four losses (Utah, Georgia, Texas A&M, Tennessee). Vanderbilt is a much weaker running team than those four.
Vanderbilt wants to push the ball down the field, but Arkansas has mostly done a good job of preventing deep throws. Getting pressure will be key, as Vanderbilt has allowed their quarterback to be bothered on far more than the official 14% pressure rate they are charged with.
When Arkansas has the ball
Vanderbilt’s secondary has been solid so far this year, but they’ve had issues up front.
The Commodores do a nice job of contesting throws down the field (51st in completion percentage over expected), but a lack of pressure on the passer has been an issue at times.
Against Tennessee, the Hogs did a nice job of finding success on short throws on early downs to keep the offense on schedule. They got away from that later in the game, but it might help get Jackson more comfortable.
Unfortunately, after a strong start on passing downs, Jackson has been awful in the last two games in must-pass situations. Protection was part of the issue against Tennessee, as Arkansas’ early-down passing helped relieve some of the pressure. Vanderbilt doesn’t get as much, so Jackson really needs to be strong throwing the ball on third down.
Another promising stat: Vanderbilt’s run defense is the worst among all Power 4 opponents the Hogs have faced so far. The Commodores have been decent at preventing successful runs, but they’ve been gashed by explosive runs all season. This is a major opportunity for the Hogs to get the run game going.
To make that happen, they’ll need to stick with their best backs instead of constantly rotating. And they should probably stick to the run concepts that they find are working. These are basic things you have to do to win in the SEC, and Arkansas’ new staff so far has not been up to the task of doing the basic things to get an advantage.
Keys to the game
Win the Whoopsy-Daisy battle. Curtis is a very talented quarterback, but he’s prone to interceptions and fumbles. The Hogs forced three turnovers against Tennessee and probably need to go at least plus-1 in the turnover margin on Saturday.
Ride the hot hand and stick to what works. Now halfway through the season, it’s time for the Hogs to stop endless back rotations and going back to plays that the team cannot execute. I like Arkansas’ chances if they stick with Settles and Russell on the ground and keep running the plays that are working.