Arkansas is back in the win column after a 34-6 shellacking of Tulsa in Fayetteville.
After a dismal start to the season, a lot of pessimists may have taken things a bit too far, with talking heads on ESPN GameDay treating a Tulsa win as essentially a lock, even acting shocked that the Razorbacks were favored by only a touchdown.
Once the game kicked off, it became apparent that despite the lowest NIL payroll in the SEC, this is still an SEC team. Arkansas may still very well go 2-10 (or 3-9), but their raw talent is still quite a bit ahead of Tulsa’s. And while it’s fair to question rather Ryan Silverfield was a good hire, he’s at least demonstrated that his team can beat teams with inferior talent.
Speaking of Silverfield, he really needed this. Obviously. The Razorbacks had zero turnovers and zero penalties in the first half, which is exactly the Silverfield experience we were promised. Arkansas’ offense is still a mess in places, but in the last two games, you can at least see the vision. And while the defense has talent issues in places, they can be pretty good when facing a non-elite offensive line.
Here are some other winners:
Chris Marshall. The former 5-star recruit who began his career at Texas A&M has allowed off-field issues to derail what could have been a spectacular career. Instead, he’ll have to settle for what’s shaping up to be a spectacular final season. He has tremendous speed and wide catch radius that makes him an ideal outside receiver. At this point, Arkansas’ entire offense is just sending Marshall downfield to draw coverage away and then running speedy receivers underneath. If opponents start seriously doubling Marshall, the tight ends and speed receivers like Ismael Cisse will need to step up.
Cam Settles. Entering this game, he’d been the most productive back on zone runs, although none of Arkansas’ base running game has worked well. The Hogs gave Settles the start in this one and he was the primary back for the first three quarters, totaling 11 rushes for 40 yards. He’s an upgrade over Sutton Smith for his running alone, but he’s turning into a high-volume receiver as well. His 11 targets are fourth on the team. With Marshall being used to take the cover off the defense, KJ Jackson is figuring out his checkdowns, so finding Settles will be increasingly important.
Adam Hawkes. The Oregon State transfer filled in for the much-maligned Bryant Williams at right tackle after Williams was banged up against Georgia. Hawkes played 29 snaps. He did allow a sack, but that was his only allowed pressure, and ProFootballFocus gave him a team-best 77 run block grade. Could the Hogs have a competition on their hands at right tackle?
Shelton Lewis, Christian Harrison, and Khmori House. This was a big game for the secondary. Arkansas was so dominated on the line of scrimmage against Utah and Georgia that the secondary had very little opportunity to influence the game. This time, it was the reverse. Arkansas’ defense won the battle in the trenches, and a secondary loaded with transfers finished the job, covering well and tackling in space. If Arkansas’ defense can at least force a stalemate at the line of scrimmage, I think the secondary is going to get more chances to contribute to a big win.
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In the preview, we talked about Tulsa’s explosive plays, especially on standard downs, being the key to any chance of a Tulsa victory.
As expected, Tulsa got nothing on passing downs: only three successful plays (none explosive) and minus-4.2 expected points added. They weren’t a great passing downs team anyway, and with a backup quarterback, they had no real chance on passing downs.
They had to win standard downs, but they couldn’t. Instead, the Hogs had their best standard downs performance of the season.
The Golden Hurricane averaged 5.1 yards per play on standard downs, but with only two explosive plays, only 22% of their created first downs came before third down. That’s a pretty strong recipe for drives eventually petering out, which is exactly what happened.
Meanwhile, the game went from a close Hog win to a blowout on passing downs. As bad as Arkansas’ offense has been this year, the Razorbacks have been a solid passing downs team. The Hogs hit four explosives, averaged 7.2 yards per play on passing downs, and were solid on third downs (+9% third down conversion rate over expected).
Marshall had a monster game, adding 11.9 expected points, or 0.99 expected points per target.
On the ground, Settles continues to show he’s the best option, as he’s pacing the Razorback backfield trio in EPA per rush and success rate this season. I would be interested to see more of the power run game the Hogs tried late with Braylen Russell. It might be Arkansas’ best chance to generate run game explosives this season.
Up next
Arkansas is in College Station on Saturday for a battle of 2-2 teams. Texas A&M’s offense is off to a catastrophic start to the season, so this could end up being a low-scoring game.