Arkansas exacted revenge against Auburn on Valentine’s Day in Fayetteville, leading wire-to-wire for an 88-75 win to get to 9-3 in SEC play.

Darius Acuff scored 31 points and had seven assists against just one turnover, draining seven of 10 from beyond the arc. Billy Richmond III had a career-high 25 points on 12 of 15 from the floor to go along with four assists and three steals.

Auburn got 29 points from Tahaad Pettiford and 22 points and 12 rebounds from KeShawn Murphy. The Tigers were without star Keyshawn Hall, who was benched in their last game and sat this one out for disciplinary reasons.

Steven Pearl’s decision to bench his leading scorer is an interesting one, given that this loss puts Auburn squarely on the bubble. The Tigers have played a really tough schedule and have multiple great wins (including at Florida), but the losses are piling up, as Auburn is just 14-11 overall and 5-7 in SEC play. The NCAA Selection Committee loves strength of schedule, so the Tigers will probably be fine barring a total collapse, but Auburn might want to pick up a couple more Quad-1 wins just to be sure.

Thanks to this result plus other action, Arkansas now sits alone in second place in the SEC, one game above a four-team logjam at 8-4 in conference play. Getting a top-four seed is absolutely in reach for the Hogs, though at a minimum, they’ll have to win their three remaining home games.

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  Matchup Analysis: Arkansas must match Texas A&M’s frantic energy
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  Box Score Breakdown: Arkansas 94, Missouri 86
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  Matchup Analysis: Do the shorthanded Hogs have enough length to tangle with the Tigers?

Advanced stats

Auburn tried to slow this game down as much as they could, as Arkansas crushed them in transition, going +7 in fast break points and +9 in transition. But even in halfcourt, the Hogs scored on 58% of possessions and won 63-59.

Arkansas also dominated points in the paint 52-34, winning easily for the second straight game. More on that in a second.

Arkansas shot 69% in the paint against Mississippi State and 73% against LSU. Now 74% in this game. As Hog Stats has been following for a while, the Hogs are piling up records for shooting inside the arc and on pace to set the school record for two-point field goal percentage in a season.

A good problem

You probably notice that Arkansas has been crushed in terms of shot volume in its last two games, particularly offensive rebounding. Is there a concern? Possibly, but I would argue that while it would be nice if the Hogs rebounded better, this is actually a symptom of a good problem.

Simply put, LSU and Auburn got more offensive rebounds because Arkansas is finally contesting in the paint. Both sets of Tigers shot below 45% on shots in the paint area, the first two times Arkansas has done that in SEC play. More missed shots in the paint means more opportunities for offensive boards, but that’s better than opponents making those shots in the first place:

As we’ve discussed all season, Arkansas’ paint defense is by far its biggest team weakness. It’s probably the weakness that will play a decisive role in ending any March run. However, just one week ago, the Hogs ranked 265th in Opponent Paint FG% and 62nd in overall Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Today – just two games later – the Hogs are 200th in the first stat and 44th in the latter. Defensive rebounding has taken a hurt, and the Hogs need to be better there (Pringle needs to grab more than one defensive rebound, for example), but actually contesting the paint is a big deal.

I’m more of a stats guy than a film-watcher, so I’m sure some more basketball-savvy folks can identify what Arkansas is doing differently, because they have to have changed something. It looks like some of their low-defender rotations are a little bit quicker, as guys like Trevon Brazile are contesting more shots around the rim, where he’s been out of position too often this season. But Arkansas has 20 blocked shots over its last two games. Many were by the help defender (often Brazile or Richmond), but both Ewin and Nick Pringle had multiple blocks as the primary defender on Saturday. The Hogs blocked three Auburn shots in the first matchup and 10 in the second. Exact same numbers for LSU: three in the first, 10 in the second.

It goes without saying, but if Arkansas is going to defend like this in the paint against better teams, then the Hogs may actually be able to squeeze enough out of their defense to make a good run.

Individual stats

Acuff and Richmond combined contributed plus-24 to the final scoring margin in a 13-point game. That’ll do. Ewin, who played with a mask, was effective if limited in his 19 minutes.

Karter Knox and DJ Wagner returned from injuries but played just six minutes each. While Arkansas is going to need both, it appears that, at least for now, Richmond has fully surpassed Knox as the starting wing. We’ve already discussed Richmond’s limitations in depth, but the fact of the matter is that he’s statistically productive at both ends, and that might be what Arkansas needs right now. Note in those plus-minus numbers that Brazile was just +8 in his 36 minutes, so the Hogs were +5 in the four minutes he was off the floor. That was time that Knox and Richmond were on the floor together, something I’ve advocated for seeing more often:

Richmond is very good with Knox, which is interesting because they mostly play the same position.

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Knox should dominate minutes at the 3, but consider Knox-Richmond together more. Wagner-Knox-Richmond lineups in particular allow you do several things: replace Brazile, who does not play well with other backups, and give either Acuff or Thomas a breather. That’s an excellent choice for a secondary lineup.

If Richmond is going to continue to play so well that he can’t have his minutes reduced even when Knox is fully healthy, then it looks more and more like Knox’s return should mostly come at the expense of Brazile, who has a great plus-minus with Thomas and Ewin but not with anyone else.

Highlights

Up next

The Hogs are in Tuscaloosa on Wednesday for a huge game against Alabama. The Tide are just one game back of the Hogs, so a loss puts them in a tie… and they lose to the tiebreaker. It’s even worse if Kentucky also wins, because Alabama holds a tiebreaker over both and the Hogs would fall from second to fourth in the SEC standings.

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