Arkansas went on the road and, once again, it was a “burn the tape” game. Except the Hogs probably shouldn’t burn the tape of this one. They should watch it and figure out why this keeps happening.
Georgia jumped to an early lead, pushed it out to 18 points in the second half, lost it all, and then went on a 20-6 run to end the game and beat the Hogs 90-76 in Athens. Georgia is a solid team and this was not a must-win for Arkansas, but getting dominated like this two road games in a row is concerning.
Let’s jump straight into the stats and we’ll have more discussion at the end.
- The case for Karter Knox
- Box Score Breakdown: Kentucky 85, Arkansas 77
- Matchup Analysis: Can the Hogs avoid a monster letdown against struggling Kentucky?
Advanced stats
Despite allowing 90 points, Arkansas’ defense wasn’t awful this game. The reason is the blistering pace of 83 possessions per side. That created an offensive efficiency of just 108.4 for Georgia. That’s not good for the Arkansas defense by any stretch, but it’s not horrible. This game was lost by the offense scoring just 76 points in 83 possessions.
Arkansas came in ranked 2nd in the nation in opponent points off turnovers… and Georgia had 29 of them in this game. That’s uncharacteristic for sure. And the fact that the Hogs were minus-14 in that stat in a game they lost by 14 explains everything.
The Hogs spent the whole game in the paint (65% usage) but couldn’t finish (49% eFG%). They also couldn’t hit 3-pointers (36%), draw fouls (0.22 free throw attempts per field goal attempts), and, most shockingly, avoid turnovers (22%). All of this is very uncharacteristic for the Razorback offense.
It’s past time to have a conversation about Nick Pringle, who has been an enormous disappointment. He was minus-10 in his 19 minutes, while Malique Ewin was net-zero in his 20 minutes. Ewin has been significantly better this year. This should not be treated as a committee of two centers: it should be Ewin as the clear starter and Pringle as his backup.
But dare we also have a conversation about Darius Acuff? As productive as he’s been, it’s still unclear how much better he makes this team. Arkansas continues to ask him to guard the opposing ballhandler which, for most of the last few games, has also been their best player. After Meechie Johnson went for 29 points while mostly guarded by Acuff, Georgia’s Jeremiah Wilkinson had 20 points in this game. Acuff isn’t a great defender, so his poor defense is hurting the team, but the effort he’s having to exert on defense is leaving him gassed late in games. He played 39 minutes against Georgia but was mostly unproductive after the Hogs managed to tie the game at 68-68 and 70-70.
The question of how much Acuff is actually helping the team has been asked all season. I posted this after just four games:
At that point, Acuff’s Offensive On-Off, which measures how much better Arkansas’ offense is when Acuff is on the floor versus when he’s on the bench, was minus-8.4, meaning that Arkansas was 8.4 points per 100 possessions worse when Acuff was playing versus when he was sitting. After yesterday’s game, Acuff is still negative, at minus-2.0.
And that’s offense, which is his strength. Given that he’s often subbing with a good defender, DJ Wagner, his Defense On-Off is worse. As a result of this, Acuff’s xRAPM has fallen to fourth on the team, behind Meleek Thomas, Trevon Brazile, and Ewin.
Our xRAPM metric is the total contribution to team performance that a player makes. It takes a prior developed from box score stats (the prior is an assumption of the player’s impact based on box score stats) and then the model uses a ridge regression to iterate over every possession of the season, adjusting the prior up or down based on how good the team actually is with that player on the floor. Players who routinely make the team worse will see their priors adjusted downward, and vice versa.
Here’s the model output for every Hog, along with a summary of the two inputs (BPM is the box score prior, and On-Off acts as a stand-in for the ridge regression portion):
You don’t have to have a statistics degree to see what’s happening here. Acuff is very productive (plus-6.8 BPM, barely-third-best on the team), but Arkansas as a team is a shocking 9.5 points per 100 possessions worse when he’s in the game. That’s the worst of any player. That is causing his xRAPM to drop to a distant fourth, more than a full point behind Ewin.
So that’s the statistical basis for the “conversation”. It’s not really the same as with Pringle: I’m not arguing for anything ridiculous like benching Acuff. But I think something needs to be done to help him at both ends. At a minimum, he shouldn’t be guarding the opposing ballhandler if that guy is one of the best players on the opposing team (Vanderbilt’s point guard is its best player, if you’re peeking ahead at the schedule). And given that DJ Wagner running the offense tends to activate other teammates while helping the defense, maybe giving Acuff more breathers and letting Wagner take more possessions as primary ballhandler would help save Acuff for the late-game, where can actually use his clutch ability.
And that’s really the thing. Acuff has been up for every moment this season, so it’s not fair to run him out of gas so he’s exhausted when the Hogs need him most. His ability to win an isolation and go get his own shot is an incredible skill late in a game, but it’s harder for him if he’s had to manage every offensive possession and guard a dynamic opponent.
In the Vanderbilt preview, we’ll look at some different lineup combos and how they’ve performed this year.
Other scores
Kentucky 80, Tennessee 78. Earlier in the year, the Wildcats were getting pummeled in the first half only to make it respectable in the second half (Louisville, Gonzaga). Now they are actually winning those games. They’ve erased deficits of 17 and 18 points over their last two games to get to 3-2 in the SEC. At this point, they’re a tournament team. Tennessee? Soft.
Florida 98, Vanderbilt 94. Look out, the Gators’ backcourt has finally arrived. Boogie Fland showed up a week ago, and now Xavian Lee had 20 points in this win. Florida might be the SEC’s best team.
Ole Miss 68, Mississippi State 67. Chris Beard and the Rebels have won three straight, the last two in heart-stopping fashion. That win in Oxford may end up being big for the Hogs.
Up next
Arkansas has what seems like a must-win against Vanderbilt on Tuesday night in Fayetteville. A win gets the Hogs to 4-2 in the SEC with a very winnable six-game stretch upcoming. A loss and the Hogs are at 3-3 with major uncertainties.
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