Well… that didn’t go well.
A theme of Arkansas’ road game against Auburn was the desperation of the Tigers. At 9-6, Auburn would fall well into the bubble with another home loss in Steven Pearl’s first season. A desperate opponent, Arkansas on short rest (the Hogs played on the road Wednesday night), and the bad Razorback defense leaving minimal margin for error all combined to produce what you saw Saturday: a 95-73 Auburn win that was never close.
Most of what happened in this game defied what you read in the preview simply because Auburn won every “hustle” stat. The Tigers dominated transition, points in the paint, and rebounds.
Panic time? For the defense, yes, probably. The second half of the Ole Miss win wasn’t a fluke, sadly. This defense isn’t championship-level so any bad offensive night is probably going to be a loss.
Overall, though, it’s not really time to panic. As we discussed in the Auburn preview, the Hogs just needed a split in these two road games to be fine. They got it, so a 9-3 (or even 10-2) start to SEC play remains on the table before a difficult final stretch.
- Box Score Breakdown: Auburn 95, Arkansas 73
- Matchup Analysis: Get ready to run against Auburn
- Box Score Breakdown: Arkansas 94, Ole Miss 87
Advanced stats
Auburn won all three hustle stats at the bottom, which is totally out of line with how both teams have looked this season. Everything suggests the Tigers simply wanted it more.
Arkansas had just a 20% offensive rebound rate against a bad defensive rebounding team, and they shot just 47% in the paint against a bad paint defense. Yikes.
As for Auburn shooting 65% eFG% – especially 68% from 3 – there’s not much you can do. They haven’t made those shots all year and while Arkansas didn’t close out well and left too many shooters open, Auburn has missed those shots when open all season. They fell on Saturday.
Starting with Auburn: Keyshawn Hall was insane. Arkansas losing Karter Knox, their best wing defender, after just seven minutes didn’t help, but Hall was the man for Auburn.
We’ve been tracking with Darius Acuff’s iffy plus-minus all season, and we saw it again in this game. He’s not a good defender, folks, and that holds the Hogs back. He was minus-28 in 35 minutes, which much of the hurt coming because he contributed nothing defensively (no steals and only one defensive rebound) while the Hogs’ D was getting pulverized. That’s how you get a minus-6.6 defensive contribution (translation: his defensive play alone contributed to a 6.6-point deficit in a game Arkansas lost by 22).
Also notable is the center numbers: Malique Ewin was somehow plus-1 in 25 minutes, while his counterpart Nick Pringle was minus-23 over the rest of the game. Ewin got more minutes once the game was out of hand the Hogs got the 29-point deficit back to the final margin of 22, but that doesn’t fully explain what we’re seeing there. Ewin is just a lot better than Pringle and deserves starter minutes. That’s been a pattern all season.
Up next
Arkansas is back at home for a midweek tilt against South Carolina. That one is pretty much a must-win. Can’t be dropping home games against teams outside the projected NCAA Tournament field.
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