Five games into the 2025-26 season, and Arkansas is not currently an NCAA Tournament team. They don’t pass the eye test, and our in-house metrics don’t like them either: the Hogs are just 101st in adjusted net efficiency, 60th in adjusted game control, and 122nd in strength of record. Another way to say all that: they haven’t put up the overall numbers of a tournament team, they haven’t controlled games like a tournament team (though they are closest there), and they don’t have the resume of a tournament team.
There’s still time to turn this thing around, obviously, but the time is running out. Historically, a good indicator of how far a team will go in March is what their advanced metrics look like in mid-December. Conference play brings about some wacky results, but generally, if you don’t look like an elite team against your non-conference slate, you’re not going to finish as an elite team in the tournament. There are exceptions, but they are usually exceptions.
So Arkansas’ 84-83 win over Winthrop is its second straight game to actually hurt its metrics. The Hogs did win, and remember, they lost to UNC Greensboro in November of the 2022-23 season in a game that sort of foretold the kind of season we were in for. Finishing 6-0 over the final 1:26 with the game-winning layup by Nick Pringle is good effort in a game that didn’t feature a lot of good effort, from either the team or the miserable crowd.
Advanced stats
Winthrop led early and then retook the lead a couple times in the final eight minutes, but the Hogs finished with a 0.9-point average lead throughout the game.
If you want the good news, it’s that Arkansas’ halfcourt offense was much better, scoring 65 points in 52 possessions with a 60% scoring rate. The bad news is that the Hogs didn’t get much in transition: just 19 points on 18 possessions, with 16 fast break points. That slowed the offensive pace to 16.3 seconds per possessions when the team had been under 15.0 for the season.
The bigger issue was the defense. Once again, they offered nothing in terms of turnovers: the Hogs are now ranked 300th out of 365 teams in points off turnovers per 100 possessions. And Winthrop worked the Razorbacks in halfcourt, scoring 62 points on 55 halfcourt possessions.
It goes without saying, but if Arkansas doesn’t go 20 of 22 at the free throw line, they lose this game. Winthrop had a higher effective field goal percentage (59% to 55%) and had identical shot chances (97.2 to 97.1). When that happens, the only other factor is free throws. Arkansas got more opportunities and shot 90%, and that was barely enough.
Ultimately, Arkansas shot the ball really well, finishing with a strong 62% true shooting and 55% eFG%. Outside of the Michigan State game, they’re shooting good enough from 3 and really well in the paint. But although they did avoid turnovers in this game, they are not generating extra possessions through offensive rebounds. The Hogs are sitting at a respectable 86th in offensive rebound rate on the season, but they are one of the longest teams in the country and they’ve played a bunch of smaller teams. That figure should be better.
Arkansas’ best two players this season have been Meleek Thomas and Nick Pringle, and you saw that again in this game. Thomas provided the scoring with 26 points, while Pringle was plenty productive (13 points, seven rebounds) and was plus-8 while his counterpart Malique Ewin was minus-5. Single-game plus-minus is iffy to cite for a number of reasons (small sample size among them), but this is a consistent pattern: Pringle leads the team in plus-minus per 100 possessions this season, with Arkansas’ defense in particular being significantly better with him in the game (89.8 opponent efficiency) than on the bench (106.8).
Highlights
Up next
Arkansas’ final tune-up game is Friday night against Jackson State at Bud Walton Arena. The Tigers are, as of today, the weakest team on the schedule, ranking 360th out of 365 Division I teams in adjusted net efficiency. It would be pretty concerning if this game is remotely close.