Everyone loves the idea of playing a game like this: early November, first weekend of the season, a true road game against a top-25 opponent with a Hall of Fame coach. “This will really help our team grow up quickly!”

Of course, the downside is the high risk of starting 1-1. Of having your dreams of a 40-0 season crushed just six days into the year. That’s what Arkansas fans are now feeling after a 69-66 loss to Michigan State.

There are lots of takeaways, both positive and negative. The negative? Arkansas’ frontcourt got bullied. Two of three forwards had really bad games, and the only one that played well fouled out in 28 minutes. John Calipari’s decision not to take another defense-and-rebounding forward now looks like it might bite him. Karter Knox looked rough in his return from a toe injury that caused him to miss the opener, and the freshmen guards played like freshmen in key moments.

And yet, the Hogs lost by just three against a solid team on the road in a hostile environment with some rough calls going against them late. Michigan State isn’t elite, but the Spartans are probably pretty good. The Razorbacks defended shooters really well, holding Michigan State to a dismal 42% effective field goal percentage. They prevented easy points, allowing just 14 fast break points and just 10 points off turnovers. The freshmen will grow up, and the Hogs will probably shoot better than 25% from beyond the arc in just about all their remaining games.

But for now, the Hogs are 0-1 in their five big non-conference games. An elite team will pull off a 3-2 record in those games, but going 3-1 against Duke, Texas Tech, Houston, and Louisville is going to be a tall order. At least there are no more true road games until SEC play starts.

Advanced stats

No one led by more than eight, but Michigan State maintained a small-but-steady lead throughout this game, allowing them to exit with a 57% adjusted win probability.

Lots to unpack here, but here are two main points:

Arkansas’ halfcourt offense was horrible. Just 40 points on 50 possessions, with only 19 of those 50 possessions resulting in any points at all. The Hogs played much faster than Michigan State and were more comfortable when running, but they just couldn’t run enough.

Arkansas’ defense prevented easy buckets… except in the paint. As mentioned above, the Spartans got nothing in transition or off turnovers, but their halfcourt offense pounded the Razorbacks in the paint, scoring 46 points there. We knew that Malique Ewin and Trevon Brazile are not strong interior defenders, so a lot is riding on Nick Pringle to stay out of foul trouble and carry the interior defense. This is basically the same issue Arkansas had last year, except Jonas Aidoo eventually put it all together and was awesome down the stretch.

The Spartans rebounded nearly half their missed shots and took 62% of their field goal tries in the paint. That’s something Arkansas will have to keep an eye on this year.

The Razorbacks, unlike last year and unlike the entire Eric Musselman era, aren’t taking many midrange shots. With Darius Acuff and Meleek Thomas, the Hogs are turning midrange shots into 3-point attempts. That’s an optimal strategy in terms of expected-points-per-shot, but it leads to higher variability. The Hogs shot just 25% from beyond the arc in this game. With the talent they have, only getting 41% of shot attempts in the paint is a miss.

While I would like to see Ewin a little more confident on offense, I think the issue in this game starts with Acuff. The offensive movement wasn’t great when he was running point, and when DJ Wagner was the primary ballhandler, the Hogs got way more paint touches. Acuff is looking to shoot and set Thomas up for shots, and he needs to realize that he’s on a team full of weapons that can score in a variety of ways. Arkansas isn’t going to reach its potential taking 50% of its field goals from beyond the arc unless a couple guys get really hot.

Here are full player numbers:

Acuff was minus-5, and the Wagner-Thomas combo was plus-5. This is his second game as a starter, so let’s give him grace and know that he’ll improve, but his 16 points came at the cost of a lot of offensive opportunities.

Meanwhile, Brazile and Ewin… yikes. Brazile managed just three points and was minus-12 in 16 minutes. Ewin, despite being the center, managed just two rebounds in 16 minutes. Not great. At least Pringle did exactly what we expected: only 8% usage, but rebounded well and defended well enough for the Hogs to be plus-4 with him on the floor.

Up next

The first of four straight buy games starts with UCA on Tuesday night. The Hogs should be 5-1 heading into the Duke game. The schedule gets really rough after that, so the Hogs have a lot of figure out quickly.