Arkansas had some chances, but falling behind 21-6 with a historically-awful defense is not a recipe for success. The Hogs scored touchdowns on five of their last seven drives, but the Aggies managed three touchdowns and a field goal over that span, which proved to be enough to hold on.

Our Sunday morning post focused on how this hard-fought result, when combined with happenings across college football (namely, Florida firing Billy Napier and Florida State’s Mike Norvell suffering a he’s-doomed loss), probably increased Bobby Petrino’s chances of being Arkansas’ next full-time head coach. This coaching carousel is too chaotic and there are too many programs ahead of Arkansas in the pecking order.

• 
  Box Score Breakdown: Arkansas 109, Southern 77
• 
  The Day After: This is life as a doormat
• 
  The Week Ahead: A desperate race for a good coach begins

As for this game, it’s more of the same. Great offense, awful defense.

First, we have to get this over with:

Yep, that says 71%. I’m slightly surprised, since Texas A&M was basically perfect on early downs, and staying on schedule significantly boosts the Noise-Weighted Score calculation. That said, the Aggies scored a touchdown on every single one of their good drives, so they could not have scored more than they did. Arkansas didn’t leave much on the table, but both field goals came in situations where a touchdown was highly likely at one point, so that’s eight points left on the table in a three-point game.

That says 11 drives for the Aggies, but that is including the kneel-downs at the end of each half. The Aggies had nine real drives: six touchdowns, one field goal, and two punts. There was not much Arkansas could do with that.

Arkansas’ 10 drives ended in five touchdowns, two field goals, two punts, and a failed fourth down. The extra drive (the touchdown at the end of the first half) is why this game was close. The failed fourth down is probably why it wasn’t a win. The Aggies converted their fourth-and-1, the Hogs didn’t. Game of inches.

The preview focused on Texas A&M’s best-in-the-nation passing downs defense. The Aggies entered the game leading the FBS in raw third down conversion percentage defense, having allowed just three third-down conversions through three SEC games.

What Petrino and this offense did to that passing downs defense is insane: 25 plays, 250 yards, 13 successes, and five explosives. Just a complete destruction in the very part of the game that Mike Elko prides himself on winning. That should make it obvious that Arkansas can score – with ease – on any defense in college football.

On the other hand, however… it was bad-versus-bad in Aggie passing down situations, and the Hogs just couldn’t get it done. Texas A&M was successful on 9 of 18 passing downs and ended up 5 of 11 on third down and 3 of 3 on fourth down. As good as Arkansas’ offense is, the defense is somehow worse.

Once you remove sacks, the Hogs rushed 27 times for 310 yards. You can make simpler: their 14 rushes that went for four-plus yards gained 310 yards (22.1 per rush), and the other 13 netted zero yards. We talked in the preview about how A&M was vulnerable to explosive runs, and there it was.

On the other hand, the Aggies did what they do with Collin Klein, who is a very good offensive coordinator. After an initial pop of passing yards, Texas A&M settled into an efficient run game, rolling up 99 line yards (a solid 2.83 per carry) with 19 successes in 35 tries. That’s what they want to do.

The 3-0 sack margin was unfortunately decisive. When Taylen Green let the ball go, the results were fine, but poor left tackle Corey Robinson II, who has been outstanding this year, got abused in this game. The Hogs couldn’t stop pressure off the left side.

The PFF grades for this game are, uh, interesting…

You thought you were watching good offense against good defense, but PFF clearly disagrees. They handed out bad grades across the board. I think Mike Washington’s 61 is the biggest eyebrow-raiser here. You have to remember that PFF separates scheme from skill, and these grades are measuring skill: when Washington has huge holes to run through, or the scheme sends him where the defense has no one, he doesn’t get credit for that. So another way of looking at this is to have an extra box on the sideline for Petrino that is very green.

Now for the defense:

If you want the good news, it is that Arkansas clearly had a plan. They knew Texas A&M’s receivers were elite, so they sought to slow them down. Julian Neal had yet another good game – he’s easily the best defensive portal pickup of the season – and the Hogs mostly limited Mario Craver and KC Concepcion. Instead, former Hog commit Ashton Bethel-Roman had a monster performance, as did the tight ends. That’s just Texas A&M having more talent and a good offensive coordinator. Give Klein a deep green box opposite Petrino’s.

Up next

Arkansas hosts Auburn next week. The Tigers are 3-4 after a 23-17 overtime loss to Missouri. Hugh Freeze is probably doomed, but there is a very strong chance he’ll be fired next Sunday if the Hogs win this game. For Petrino’s chances, this game is an absolute must-win. Auburn’s offense is the worst the Hogs have seen since the Arkansas State game.