Arkansas closed out its home slate in thrilling fashion on Wednesday, surviving a scare from LSU. Despite the Tiger defense bottling up JD Notae most of the game, the Hogs got big contributions from other guys, namely Stanley Umude and Au’Diese Toney, who combined for 41 points.

The Razorback defense, which has been so good against guards in SEC play, had a rough night against LSU’s athletic forwards. The Tigers repeatedly got to the rim and chased after their own misses. But in the end, the Hogs used the same formula that beat Kentucky to win another thriller in Fayetteville. Let’s break it down.

Game Score

Confused? Check out the advanced stats glossary to learn more about the stats cited here.

We discussed in the preview that LSU’s defense is ranked #1 by several different efficiency metrics, including our own Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. So scoring 77 points and averaging 1.12 points per possession is a good way to get an offensive game score of 97. The defense did not play well — the reason why is obvious and we’ll explain it below — but the story told by the game score is that “Arkansas’ offensive performance is more about Arkansas playing well on offense, but LSU’s offensive performance is more about Arkansas playing poorly on defense.”

Here are all of Arkansas’ game scores for the season:

Arkansas’ overall game scores (black line) have been 80+ in 8 of the last 9 games, which is amazing consistency. Even the Alabama loss wasn’t that bad. If there’s a concern, it’s the interesting shift between the offensive performance (blue line) and the defensive performance (orange line). Defense drove Arkansas’ resurgence, which a series of great games from the Mizzou game on 1/12 to the Tennessee game on 2/19. For a solid month, Arkansas had zero bad defensive games and you could probably make the case that the Hogs had the best defense in the country for those six weeks. The offense was all over the place — it cost the Hogs the Alabama game and was mediocre against Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Tennesee.

But look at the shift. The Hogs have now had two not-great defensive performances in their last three games, while the offense is on its best three-game stretch of the season. The good news here is that the Hogs are finding different ways to win. Clamp down on Notae? The Hogs got a 97 offensive game score anyway. Foul out Williams? Kamani Johnson gives big minutes. Block a ton of shots with Walker Kessler? The Hog defense will win by shutting you down on the other end. Get an unstoppable big to score at will in the low post? The Hogs will simply outscore you.

But the bad news is that if Arkansas’ defense has peaked, it’s hard to see a big run in the NCAA Tournament. The offense has certainly taken a huge step, but they still don’t shoot well enough to will the Hogs to a big run.

I think the Tennessee game becomes a big test for the defense, because in theory, the Vols are a good matchup for the Arkansas defense due to a lack of dominant forwards. The Hogs don’t have to win to give some good signs (and winning in Knoxville will be very hard). If the defense gets shredded like it was against LSU, that’s a cause for concern. If the D plays well, it’s easy to keep feeling good.

Team Stats

This game played out in a manner shockingly similar to the Kentucky game. We might could have seen this coming, as I discussed in the preview:

LSU plays at a rapid pace and crashes the offensive glass, making them very similar to Kentucky in terms of schematic approach. The difference is that LSU doesn’t shoot it nearly as well as Kentucky

The Tigers made up for not shooting as well as Kentucky by rebounding even better. The Tigers snagged 22 offensive boards — about half of their misses — and largely avoided the turnover bug that has plagued their offense all season. The Hogs forced 21 turnovers in the first matchup but managed only 10 this time. And after Arkansas turned it over 18 times in the first game, the Hogs only gave it away 12 times. That was the primary driver of the higher-than-expected score.

Ultimately, Arkansas’ ability to get to the free throw line and shoot better inside the arc delivered the victory for the second straight game. Arkansas shot exactly 58% from 2 for the second straight game, and held a very dangerous interior opponent to much less than that for the second straight game. In case you’re wondering, 2-point defense is an excellent indicator of NCAA Tournament success. Even though the Hogs had some issues on defense, their 2-point defense is very strong right now.

Reviewing the Keys to the Game

In our previews, we always lay out three keys for the Hogs to win. Let’s see how Arkansas did:

• Clean up the defensive glass. “Second chances are their lifeline” is what I wrote about LSU, and sure enough, the Tigers stayed alive on the offensive glass. The Hogs have to rebound better against forward-dominated teams. Trey Wade has done some nice things this season, but he played nine minutes against LSU and failed to record a rebound. By my calculation, the Hogs were minus-8 in rebounding while he was on the floor. The Hogs need more than that from the power forward position.
• Pacing and spacing. I thought Arkansas’ spacing was fine. The Hogs attacked LSU’s pack line defense as expected, with crisp perimeter passing and 4- and 5-out looks designed to get LSU’s defenders out of position. Stanley Umude hit a couple of open wing 3-pointers, and Au’Diese Toney was critical with his baseline cuts. That said, if the Hogs see another pack line defense, they have to shoot better when left open for 3.
• Keep Notae and Williams out of foul trouble. Yikes. Williams’ fouls all happened in an avalanche in the second half, as neither had foul issues in the first 20 minutes. It seemed like all was lost when Williams fouled out with 4:27 to go and the Hogs about to be down 67-63, but Kamani Johnson provided solid minutes down the stretch.

Player Stats

Another game, another shredding of the Arkansas defense by elite forwards. Tari Eason did all his damage in just 18 minutes, a fact I did not realize until this table generated. He played less than half the game and had the best game score. There’s a reason I mentioned he might be the best player in the SEC in the preview.

But after Eason and Days, LSU suffered from their guards hurting them, which is in line with how LSU’s guards have played all year and how Arkansas has defended guards all year. Pinson the worst player on the floor (perhaps “least valuable” is a better term here). I love the confidence of a guy who has missed 15 shots in a game and decides the take one more for the win.

For the Hogs, Notae was a non-factor, forcing Umude and Toney to go win the game themselves. Umude’s +9.2 was his third-best game score of the season, while Toney’s +6.0 was his fifth-best, but second-best in SEC games.

If this is the Umude that’s going to show up for the Hogs all postseason, that’s a very, very good sign.

Up Next

Saturday’s trip to Knoxville should be interesting. We’ll break down SEC seeding scenarios in a separate piece, but the main takeaway is that Mississippi State absolutely blew it for everyone last night. They had Auburn beat and gave it away. There’s still a lot of moving parts — Kentucky could lose at Florida, and the Arkansas-Tennessee game is obviously huge. In the NCAA Tournament, the Hogs are now likely a 4-seed and unlikely to drop even if they fall in Knoxville.

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