It happened again. Sam Pittman’s 18th one-possession loss looked a lot like the previous 17. Coaching mismanagement, special teams blunders, and a critical turnover doomed the Hogs in a 41-35 road loss to Ole Miss.

The coaching mismanagement hit right out of the gate, on the opening drive. Facing 4th-and-2 from the Ole Miss 33, Pittman elected to have his true freshman kicker attempt a 51-yard field goal. He’s seen his defense in practice. He had to know that 51-yard field goals aren’t going to win this game. Scott Starzyk – whose confidence hopefully isn’t shot – missed it and a 49-yarder later later in a game the Hogs lost by two field goals.

And then there’s Travis Williams, whose defense has now been lit up by Lane Kiffin for two straight seasons. We wondered whether or not T-Will would continue to try and play press man even though that’s not the ideal way to play a Kiffin offense, and sure enough he did. If Barry Odom is coordinating this game and playing his “rush 3, drop 8” zone, the Hogs are leaving Oxford with a win. Instead, the Razorback secondary, which clearly lacks the skill to press SEC-level receivers, was completely exposed. Julian Neal was actually fine on one side, but Kani Walker – who had been fantastic through two weeks – had a horrific game before exiting with a horrific injury in the fourth quarter. Arkansas’ safeties were also not fast enough to offer meaningful help, leaving the Rebels with way too many 1-on-1 jump ball opportunities, which they won with ease.

Still, the Hogs had a chance. Taylen Green – who became the 15th SEC quarterback in the last 30 years to pass for 300 yards and rush for 100 in the same game – guided the offense down the field in the closing minutes. With just under two minutes to play, a short completion to Jalen Brown that would have set up 1st-and-10 at the Rebel 20 ended with Brown being stripped and Ole Miss recovering. It stinks for Green, who was fantastic all game. Malachi Singleton had his moment against Tennessee, but Green has still yet to lead a game-winning drive in the final minutes (he did lead a game-tying drive against Oklahoma State).

Let’s not put too much blame on Brown. After all, he wasn’t on the team for the previous 17 one-score losses, and recent history suggests that there were plenty of other Jalen Browns on the team ready to fumble this game away in a critical moment. Ultimately, that’s been the problem in the Pittman era. This loss cannot be blamed on NIL. This is just another Arkansas team that lacks the whatever it is and falls apart in big moments.

If you want the good news, is that’s some previous Hog teams that lacked the whatever it is somehow found it during the season. Luck does come and go sometimes. Consider the 2015 and 2016 teams: Bret Bielema lost his first nine one-score games from 2013 to 2015. The Hogs started the 2015 season 1-3, with giveaway losses to Toledo and Texas A&M. However, a make-or-break game in Knoxville proved to be the first of sea change: the Hogs escaped with a 24-20 win, then won five of their next six one-score games, a record that included the 53-52 win over Ole Miss that year, the 34-30 win over Ole Miss in 2016, and the thrilling 41-38 double-overtime win over TCU in 2016. A team that didn’t have it suddenly had it.

The optimist’s case

Arkansas is going to have to find it if they’re going to navigate this schedule, starting with a trip to 3-0 Memphis next week. But there’s plenty of good news: Notre Dame and Texas look like they were severely overrated in the preseason. LSU might be overrated as well. Texas A&M, Missouri, Auburn, and Mississippi State all look better than expected… but all four have to come to Fayetteville.

The optimistic case is that Arkansas’ offense is elite and the defense, while bad, isn’t as bad as what we saw Saturday. After all, the Hogs gave up 600 yards and 63 points to Ole Miss last year. Kiffin has T-Will’s number (as mentioned above, he probably bears most of the blame for that). The T-Will defense that gave up 63 to Ole Miss gave up 20 to Texas, 28 to Missouri, 14 to Tennessee, 24 to Texas A&M, 14 to Auburn, and 25 to Mississippi State. Do that again and the Hogs have six SEC wins on the table.

The next two will determine everything. I thought the Hogs needed to go 2-1 against Ole Miss, Memphis, and Notre Dame to have a strong season. That’s still possible, and Notre Dame was exposed by Texas A&M on Saturday.

Advanced stats

Ready to be upset?

Just awful. Our noise-weighted score formula (discussed here) tones down the impact of explosive plays, turnovers, special teams, and third-down conversions to generate a score that more closely reflects the more predictable elements of the game. The good news is that the noise-weighted score holds more predictive value than the actual score moving forward.

Arkansas was +10 in Expected Points Added (EPA) on plays from scrimmage. That means they lost 16 points due to non-scrimmage elements: field position, penalties, and special teams. Mostly the latter two.

Bobby Petrino’s offense was humming: 7.3 yards per play, only five havoc plays allowed, 8.0 plays per drive, 79% of available yards gained, and zero three-and-outs. Ole Miss’s defense is probably about average for what Arkansas will see over the rest of the year: LSU and Texas are probably a bit better, Mississippi State and Missouri a bit worse, and Texas A&M, Auburn, Notre Dame, and Tennessee about equal. If the Hogs can do that every week then they won’t lose many games.

Of course, the final stat on the table was the difference in the game. Both teams created seven scoring opportunities (drives that feature a snap inside the opponent 40). Ole Miss got five touchdowns and two field goals. The Hogs got four touchdowns, two missed field goals, and a turnover. Those three failures were the difference in the game.

These two teams finished first and second in the SEC in explosive play rate last year, and were first and second this year entering this game. The Hogs ended up doubling the Rebels in explosive play rate (18% to 9%), but the Rebel big plays were bigger in terms of gains. Still, the Hogs had a higher EPA, especially on the ground, and were +33% in adjusted third down conversion rate over expected. I’ll run the numbers before the Memphis game, but the Hogs are probably top-5 in the nation in that stat.

Arkansas’ run defense also looked fine. There were too many missed tackles, which we expected, but the Rebels didn’t get much value on the ground.

If this is the Razorback run game… wow. The Hogs were both efficient and explosive. They led the nation in rushing explosiveness last year and are well on track to do it again this year. Ole Miss had a 47% success rate but only 2.19 line-yards per rush: as we discussed in the preview, the Rebel offensive line isn’t great, but the running backs are. Note zero explosive runs for Ole Miss.

Here’s where the game was lost. That’s an unacceptable performance for the Razorback secondary against a quarterback in his first FBS start. Trinidad Chambliss was confident and accurate, but the defense has to have a better plan than that.

Both teams spread their touches around nicely. I love what the Hogs have in Mike Washington. He’s explosive on the ground and a good pass-catcher out of the backfield. They hit him on one wheel route and tried another one. I know Petrino is enjoying having him as a weapon.

Up next

The Hogs travel to Memphis to face the 3-0 Tigers next week. This is an unquestionable must-win if the Pittman era is to continue. It’s already gut check time. It’s a long season, but it’s hard to see a way back if the Hogs can’t win this game.