The real season has begun. Arkansas heads to Oxford to take on Ole Miss in what could end up being a make-or-break game for the Hogs.

This game always provides the unexpected. Consider the history:

• 2001: Arkansas 58, Ole Miss 56 (7OT). The original game that wouldn’t end, Arkansas outlasted the Rebels in Oxford in dual between Matt Jones and Eli Manning.
• 2008: Ole Miss 23, Arkansas 21. Houston Nutt’s first return to Fayetteville ended in an Ole Miss win when the Hogs were called for offensive pass interference on a play that would have set them up in field goal range with a minute to play.
• 2011: Arkansas 29, Ole Miss 24. Nutt’s last game against the Hogs saw the Rebs jump to a 17-0 halftime lead in Oxford before the Razorbacks went on a 29-0 run.
• 2014: Arkansas 30, Ole Miss 0. A week after ending a long SEC losing streak and giving Bret Bielema his first conference win, the Hogs forced six turnovers – including a 100-yard pick-six by Rohan Gaines – and blanked 8th-ranked Ole Miss on a rainy day in Fayetteville.
• 2015: Arkansas 53, Ole Miss 52 (OT). The wildest game in this rivalry’s history, the Hogs converted a 4th-and-25 in overtime and then got a two-point conversion to win a game that featured 1,200 yards of total offense and zero turnovers. Bonus points because it also cost Ole Miss the SEC West title.
• 2016: Arkansas 34, Ole Miss 30. A wild, back-and-forth game ended when Santos Ramirez put a hit-stick on Chad Kelly a yard shy of a first down on a 4th-and-16 scramble in the final minute.
• 2017: Arkansas 38, Ole Miss 37. Down 31-7 in the second quarter, the Hogs pulled off the largest comeback in school history in Oxford, ending when Connor Limpert made the game-winning field goal four consecutive times (Ole Miss coach Matt Luke used all three of his timeouts trying to ice him).
• 2020: Arkansas 33, Ole Miss 21. The first Pittman-versus-Kiffin matchup saw Barry Odom’s drop-8 zone foil Rebel QB Matt Corral, who tossed six interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns.
• 2021: Ole Miss 52, Arkansas 51. Another wild game that featured both teams rushing for more than 300 yards. Arkansas scored as time expired, but a two-point conversion to try to match the 2015 score was unsuccessful.
• 2022: Arkansas 42, Ole Miss 27. An unexpected blowout, as the Hogs led 42-6 in the third quarter before Ole Miss scored some garbage-time points.
• 2024: Ole Miss 63, Arkansas 31. Another unexpected blowout, this time going Ole Miss’s way.

Given the sting from last year and the fact that Ole Miss is generally expected to take a step back this season, the Hogs could really use a win here.

Meet the Rebels

Ole Miss opened with a 63-7 romp over Georgia State, one of the weakest FBS teams. They went on the road in Week 2 and avenged last year’s hideous home loss, 30-23. It wasn’t overly impressive, as Kentucky is picked at the bottom of the SEC standings and the Rebels fell behind by two scores early, but an SEC road win is an SEC road win.

On paper, this game is very winnable. The pieces that contributed to last year’s 63-31 romp are mostly gone. The Rebels have a big problem on each side of the ball. Offensively, Jaxson Dart is gone, and new quarterback Austin Simmons, while he’s had his moments, has struggled with his decision-making. Defensively, the powerful defensive line that led the SEC in sacks is completely gone, and the Rebels aren’t nearly as disruptive up front so far.

Those two things play nicely into the Razorbacks’ hands. But Ole Miss still has a lot of talent, so this will be a tough game.

When Ole Miss has the ball

We don’t have our advanced stat rankings yet – those will come in time for next week – so we’ll focus on the stats from Ole Miss’s win over Kentucky.

The good: Ole Miss put up 455 yards and 6.3 per play against a solid SEC defense. They are going to move the ball. Lane Kiffin’s scheme showcases nice balance between run and pass and is almost impossible to shut down completely. When it blunders, it is usually because of turnovers or third- and fourth-down struggles. Teams that can take away explosive plays to force the Rebels to put together long drives can usually let them shoot themselves in the foot.

The bad is that Ole Miss did plenty of shooting themselves in the foot in Lexington. Simmons tossed a pair of first-quarter interceptions that were both very bad decisions. Georgia State also picked him off twice, so that’s four for the year. The Rebels also had three three-and-outs, two of which came in the middle of the second half while Ole Miss was clinging to a 27-20 lead.

Finally, the Rebels were just 3 of 13 on third down, posting an adjusted third conversion rate of minus-16% (their third-down conversion percentage was 16% worse than we would expect given the distances they faced on those 13 attempts).

Rebel run game: good back, bad blocking

Right now, Ole Miss is riding star tailback Kewan Lacy, who had 28 carries for 138 yards against Kentucky. How important is the run game? All six scoring drives (three touchdowns and three field goals) featured a run of at least six yards from Lacy. Lacy’s longest run on a drive where Ole Miss didn’t score was five yards. Those seven drives ended in two interceptions, four punts, and a missed field goal.

So the run game is vital, but it was iffy overall, posting just a 38% success rate and 2.21 line-yards per rush, neither of which are great. Explosive runs (15%) are the main thing boosting the Rebel rush numbers.

Pro Football Focus agrees with our numbers, placing the blame for Ole Miss’s poor rushing numbers on the offensive line, and giving the Rebels a run blocking grade of just 51, second-worst in the SEC. Former Hog Patrick Kutas isn’t exactly helping: his individual run blocking grade is just 54, quite a bit worse than Kobe Branham (89) and Fernando Carmona (75), the two guards who replaced him on the Hogs’ line.

With Lacy, the key is to wrap him up quickly after first contact. He’s averaging 3.8 yards after contact per rush, which is excellent. He’s also forced 22 missed tackles in 44 carries this year, also excellent. If Arkansas’ back seven struggles to get him on the ground, this could be a long day. But if he can’t break any tackles, the Rebels could be in trouble.

Rebel pass game: mistake-prone, but dangerous

When Simmons makes the right read, the Ole Miss passing game has teeth. His 24 passing attempts led to 235 yards, good for a 9.8 average per attempt. The Rebels averaged +0.1 EPA per pass attempt and posted a very solid 46% passing success rate in Lexington.

However, the issue has been the 54% of passes that are unsuccessful. Just like Arkansas last year, when things go badly for the Ole Miss passing game, they go very badly. Simmons has been slow to make reads and has been dangerous passes on several occasions this season, as DJ Williams of 4th & 5 breaks down here, starting at the 32-minute mark.

As mentioned above, Simmons has already tossed four interceptions this season, and two of them in the first quarter led to Ole Miss focusing on the run game (48 attempts) over the pass game (24 attempts) to beat Kentucky. They could afford to turtle up because they were facing Zach Calzada. That’s not a luxury they’re going to have moving forward, so Simmons is going to have to figure things out.

It might help if Ole Miss protected a little better up front. After keeping Dart very clean last year, Simmons isn’t getting a lot to work with on straight dropbacks this year. The Rebels have only allowed one sack (PFF charged it to Kutas, if you must know), but they’ve allowed 12 pressures.

The Rebels will use RPOs and play action to disguise their weaknesses here. In true dropbacks with no play action, Simmons is 6 of 18 for 73 yards and three interceptions, and he’s been pressured eight times, scrambling twice and being sacked once.

At receiver, the Rebels are also leaning heavily into one guy: Harrison Wallace III, who has nine catches for 247 yards this season. No one else has cracked 100 yards. Deuce Alexander (6 catches for 85 yards), De’Zhaun Stribling (4 catches for 64 yards) and tight end Dae’Quan Wright (4 catches for 78 yards) are other names to watch. Wright had a career day in Fayetteville last year, catching nine passes for 99 yards and two touchdowns. Former Hog Luke Hasz is expected to be available for the first time this season for the Rebels.

Arkansas’ cornerbacks have looked amazing so far this year, now Kani Walker, who seems to be the main guy, is going to get tested for real. PFF has given him an 80 grade in coverage this year: on 73 coverage snaps this season, he’s allowed just seven targets, three receptions, and 37 yards. He’s broken up three passes as well. The Razorbacks completely shut down Corey Rucker, one of the top Group of Five receivers, last week, but this will be a different test. Ole Miss uses the threat of the deep pass to set up the rest of their offense, and their receivers have excellent speed.

Soft coverage or press?

Most teams – like Kentucky – play soft coverage, which leaves them open underneath. That strategy can work – it certainly did for the Hogs in 2020, for example – but only if the Rebels shoot themselves in the foot enough. Last week, Kentucky tried it, and while they got two interceptions, they still gave up 30 points.

Travis Williams tends to prefer to press. That’s what he did last year, with catastrophic results. But that was a different Ole Miss offense. So should he press or play soft coverage, forcing Simmons to consistently make the right read? If he thinks his run defense is solid, he should probably go soft, and force Kiffin to put his quarterback into some tough spots. Also, if he thinks the Razorback offense is capable of getting the upper hand, soft coverage might work better for a war of attrition.

When Arkansas the ball

Speaking of getting the upper hand, a thus-far dominant Razorback offense will finally be tested. Under defensive coordinator Pete Golding, Ole Miss has dominated the transfer portal and has put together strong defenses the last couple of seasons.

The pass rush was the strength of last year’s team. But Jared Ivey (eight sacks), Pooh Paul (six sacks), and Walter Nolen (six sacks) are gone, and the returners, led by Princely Umanmielen (11 sacks) and Suntarine Perkins (11 sacks) are not off to a hot start. The Rebels do have 32 pressures and four sacks so far, so they are not slouching, but 21 of those pressures and two of the sacks were against Georgia State. Calzada was only pressured on 11 of his 33 dropbacks last week, which is normal but not extraordinary.

If the Hogs can protect Taylen Green, the next question is whether they can run the ball. Ole Miss got gashed a bit against Kentucky, allowing 5.6 yards per non-sack rush, 3.05 line-yards per rush, and a 44% rushing success rate. That all added up to +0.15 EPA per rush for the Wildcats. If the Hogs can get that on Saturday, they’ll almost certainly leave Oxford with a win, or at least with a lot of points scored.

Through the air, PFF gives the Ole Miss defense a sterling 81 coverage grade. Kentucky got nothing through the air, generating just two completions of 20-plus yards in 36 dropbacks and posting a meagre 25% passing success rate. Again, though, the Wildcats have the SEC’s worst quarterback in Calzada.

Still, this will be a major test for Green and the entire receiver corps. Ole Miss has yet to pick off a pass, but they do have eight pass breakups. I’m also pretty sure they’re going to bust coverage a lot less frequently than Alabama A&M and Arkansas State. Green needs to get through his reads quickly and not put the ball in harm’s way.

Keys to the game

Limit explosives. Ole Miss is thriving on big runs and big passes, but the Rebel offense isn’t doing much otherwise. Forcing them to sustain long drives without the benefit of big plays is the key to slowing them down, as they’ve shown they’ll shoot themselves in the foot.

Fewer mistakes wins. The turnover battle and penalty yards figure to be major factors in this game. Both quarterbacks frequently put the ball in harm’s way, so Green throwing fewer picks than Simmons would be a good sign.

Arkansas and Ole Miss kick off at 6 pm in Oxford. The game is televised on ESPN.