Arkansas came up with a monster must-needed win on Tuesday at Madison Square Garden, defeating 14th-ranked Michigan 89-87 in the Jimmy V Classic.
After starting 0-2 against marquee non-conference opponents, the Hogs had to beat Miami and Michigan. It took falling behind by double-digits in both, but the Razorbacks got their two wins. They trailed by 15 in the first half, cut to 4 by halftime, raced out to an 18-point second-half lead, and then had to hold on for a close win that wasn’t decided until a final Wolverine play failed to get a good shot.
Advanced stats
Arkansas’ halfcourt offense is suddenly rounding into form. The Hogs struggled to score when they couldn’t get in transition early in the year, but they’ve now pieced several strong halfcourt performances together, which is very, very promising.
Michigan started hot and played faster, but ultimately, the Wolverines were undone by a poor start to the second half.
Michigan shot better by dominating around the rim and hitting shots at all three levels, but the Hogs won this game by creating way more shot opportunities. The second-half turnover number was 10-0 at one point, but the real surprise was the Hogs dominating Michigan on the boards. We’ll see this in the numbers below in a second, but when Jonas Aidoo is on the floor, Arkansas goes from a decent rebounding team to an elite one.
Player stats
The big three were Boogie Fland, Trevon Brazile, and DJ Wagner, although Aidoo also deserves a shoutout. Michigan’s twin 7-footers did a lot of damage, but the Hogs really limited the Wolverine backcourt.
A closer look at Arkansas’ personnel
The Hogs appear to finally be healthy, although Adou Thiero and Billy Richmond had the flu, and the Zvonimir Ivisic is still nursing a bad ankle. All three were able to play, though. We have enough information to start talking about how much value each player is creating.
Our primary method of a player’s contribution is xRAPM, which takes box score information and feeds it to a ridge regression model that looks possession-by-possession at how the team did while that player is on the court. The method you’ll see here is basically identical to the method used by any number of other basketball advanced stats, including ESPN’s RPM, 538’s RAPTOR, BBall Index’s LEBRON. They differ in the priors that the model receives and the Bayesian method used, but they’re all doing basically the same thing.
The output here is net points produced per 100 possessions on the floor. So a player with +5 is making his team 5 points better per 100 possessions than the average Division I player, and that +5 is inclusive of all of his contributions, both measurable and unmeasurable in the box score.
Here are Arkansas’ top players:
- Zvonimir Ivisic +12.7
- DJ Wagner +8.5
- Boogie Fland +8.3
- Trevon Brazile +8.1
- Adou Thiero +6.7
- Johnell Davis +1.9
- Karter Knox -3.9
- Billy Richmond -5.8
Jones Aidoo has not played enough minutes to have an xRAPM score yet, but he should cross that threshold soon.
Zvonimir Ivisic
On first glance, Big Z appears overrated. Is he actually? Any advanced stat that uses box score info is likely to overrate big men, because bigs can accumulate more measure box score stats (blocks and defensive rebounds) than small guards. But there’s more than meets the eye on Z. First off, he has the best team defensive rating of all nine rotation Razorbacks. The Hogs are allowing just 88.4 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor. They’re also snagging 76.3% of defensive rebounds (second-best) and allowing just 34.8% of field goal attempts against them to be layups, dunks, or tip-ins (second). Those are all team stats, and correlation isn’t causation, but Big Z being on the floor correlates with Arkansas defending well by securing defensive boards and forcing jump shots.
Jonas Aidoo
Of course, Z is likely to start ceding minutes to a now-healthy Aidoo, who offers a different dynamic. With Aidoo on the floor, Arkansas is rebounding 61.1% of all available rebounds. For context, Georgia leads Division I in total rebound rate… and 59.6%. When he’s on the floor, the Hogs are snagging 35.0% of available offensive rebounds and 82.7% of available defensive rebounds, both best on the team, with the defensive rebounds being by a very large margin.
Given Arkansas’ established team strengths – forcing turnovers, shooting well at all levels, not fouling – being a dominant rebounding team is a great complement to help win.
Boogie Fland & DJ Wagner
Arkansas’ second and third guys by xRAPM are Fland and Wagner. My guess is that these two will eventually take over first and second, as the plus-minus numbers suggest they are the most valuable players. I’m assuming your eye test says the same thing. But they are contributing in very different ways.
Fland’s contributions are mostly offensive. His +4.5 net offensive points produced per 100 possessions are second-best on the team behind Thiero, thanks to a team-best 9.0 assists per 100 possessions, a solid 0.60 free throws attempted per two-point attempt, and a fairly-low 13% turnover rate. When he’s on the floor, the Hogs are scoring 113.5 points per 100 possessions as a team, third-best.
But when you take him out of the game, the Razorback offense tanks. With Fland on the bench, the Hogs are scoring just 99.1 points per 100 possessions, which is by far the worst for any player (next worst: Thiero at 104.5). In fact, Fland is the only Hog who has seen the team outscored on the season when he’s off the floor.
If you want to break the defense, though, take Wagner out of the game. When he’s on the floor, Wagner is second behind Big Z in net defensive points produced per 100 possessions, with +5.1. He’s also second in on-floor team defensive rating (89.2), also behind Big Z. But while the Hogs have still had plenty of stretches of good defense with Z on the bench, the defense has been awful when Wagner leaves. The Razorbacks are allowing a dismal 104.4 team defensive rating with Wagner on the bench, and he’s the only player who has watched the Hogs allow a rating above 100 while off the floor.
So Fland and Wagner seem to have formed a perfect complementary lineup, as long as they never leave the game. Fland lifts the offense, Wagner lifts the defense. If either exits, the Hogs plummet on that side of the ball.
Adou Thiero
Of course, those guys need help beyond Z’s rim protection and Aidoo’s rebounding. Thiero has boosted the offense, leading the team with +5.4 net offensive points produced per 100 possessions. He’s been incredibly efficient at high volume, shooting 64% effective field goal percentage, living at the free throw line (0.79 free throw attempts per two-point attempt), snagging a few offensive boards (3.0 per 100 possessions, second-best), dishing out a few assists (3.8 per 100, third), and rarely turning it over (12.3%, second). It’s all amounted to Arkansas scoring 113.7 points per 100 possessions with Thiero on the floor, which is second-best.
Unfortunately, you have to play defense, too. Thiero has compiled stats, recording 8.0 defensive boards per 100 (second) and 4.0 steals per 100 (second). However, the plus-minus numbers tell a different story. With Thiero on the floor, the Hogs have a team defensive rating of 93.1, but when he leaves the game, the Hogs get better, improving to an 87.5 rating. None of his individual stats suggest a clear reason why (Arkansas’ ability to rebound or force turnovers don’t change when he exits the game), so we’ll make sure that trend continues for the next few games before pronouncing judgment.
Trevon Brazile
One guy making a move right now is Brazile. He grades as the team’s fourth-best player right now, and his on-floor team offensive rating of 116.3 is actually the best on the squad. He’s shooting a ridiculous 71% eFG% (first) and only turning it over on 10.2% of possessions (first). He’s no slouch on defense, either, posting a team-high 11.1 defensive rebounds per 100.
Johnell Davis
The biggest disappointment has to be Davis, whose numbers are positive but not anywhere near what the Hogs thought they were getting. His 56% eFG% is quietly solid, but he’s appeared out of place at times. He’s turning it over on 18.9% of his possessions, which is second-worst on the team, better than only Big Z. Related to role confusion, his usage rate is just 18%, which is low for a player of his caliber. Usage is the percentage of a team’s total possession-ending plays (shot chances and turnovers) that a player uses while on the floor. Since there are five players, 20% is balanced for a single player. You want your key offensive players above 20% so that your defense and rebounding specialists aren’t having to eat too many possessions, and that’s the issue with Davis.
Karter Knox & Billy Richmond
The two freshmen wings remain a work in progress. Knox is shooting just 42% eFG% and averages a team-low 1.1 steals per 100. Richmond is shooting much better – a solid 66% eFG%, albeit on low usage – but a lot of his production is coming outside the flow of the offense, and the Hogs have a team offensive rating of just 104.4 when he’s in the game, compared to 115.9 when he’s on the bench. Both are fouling at high rates as well, which isn’t unusual for freshmen. Richmond may need another year to learn how to work within the offense, but Knox could take a big step forward in-season if he can just be a slightly more efficient scorer. He’s not turning it over and he’s commanded a solid 22% usage when he’s on the court, so the pieces are there if the shots can start falling.
What we want to see
Arkansas has three more tune-up games before a brutal conference play begins. The SEC is looking at 10 or 11 bids, and the Hogs likely need to go at least 8-10 in SEC play to make the Dance. Something like 10-8 puts them in line for a 6-seed, while 12-6 would get them a 3- or 4-seed.
We need to see Aidoo continue to be a leader on the boards, as the trends are promising but he hasn’t played a ton of minutes yet. Nelly Davis needs to be more comfortable in the offense, maintaining good shooting numbers while increasing his usage and reducing his turnovers. If Knox can start shooting a little better, that will add more scoring punch to this offense.
Above all, everyone has to stay healthy. Arkansas is one major injury away from this season spiraling, which is a dangerous way to live. But when this team is fully healthy, it’s a very good basketball team.