After a 4-8 season, Arkansas needed some kind of reset. Rather than firing head coach Sam Pittman, the reset came on offense, with the shocking hiring of Bobby Petrino to run the Hog offense.
Now begins a rebuild of the offense. Arkansas’ personnel never worked with Dan Enos’s scheme, and the Hogs ended up with KJ Jefferson, a great but flawed player, surrounded by a weak supporting cast at almost every position.
Let’s dive into the stats for the roster, recapping the 2023 season, looking ahead to 2024, considering how the new offense will impact the talent, and predicting portal priorities.
All advanced stats data is from ProFootballFocus.
Quarterback
Pop quiz: which of these six quarterbacks would you rather have quarterbacking the Hogs in 2024?
Here’s a quick profile of each, based on these numbers:
- Player A. Most accurate, highest rate of big-time throws (BTT), doesn’t turn it over much, and is the biggest run threat on this list. Seems like a good choice. He does struggle to escape pressure.
- Player B. Decently accurate, but very low rate of big-time throws, struggles to escape pressure, and isn’t an elite runner.
- Player C. Very similar to A, but with an even higher sack rate and slightly less accuracy.
- Player D. Least accurate passer and occasionally turns it over, but throws down the field and is the most escapable of the group, presenting significant scrambling potential.
- Player E. High turnover rate, limited run threat, but very hard to sack and can make some big throws.
- Player F. Accurate downfield passer and protects the ball the best, but offers the least run threat.
So who are you picking? Make your decision before reading on.
Player A was the overwhelming winner in a poll I conducted on Twitter on Friday night into Saturday. That would be KJ Jefferson over his full career. Player C is also KJ Jefferson, but just his 2023 season. You might have expected his 2023 numbers to look much worse, but somehow they don’t. His 73% accuracy and 5.1% BTT in 2023 are actually higher than all of the non-KJ options on this list. Yes, in 2023 his turnover rate jumped slightly and he took sacks at an insane rate (33%) despite facing a bad-but-not-horrible 34% pressure rate. But he was always an accurate passer capable of big time throws, and he was always a major run threat.
Based on these numbers, I’m not so sure Arkansas wants to move on from him. But if they do, here are the other answers:
- Player B is Jacolby Criswell, over his entire career. The sample size is very limited, but Criswell grades as a reasonably-accurate passer who doesn’t offer much else. Lack of experience is room for growth for his game.
- Player D is Boise State’s Taylen Green, who has taken a visit with Arkansas. Green is a major run threat who is very hard to sack, but he isn’t super accurate. His high aDOT (average depth of target) means he’s unafraid of throwing down the field.
- Player E is UNLV’s Jayden Maiava, who was a true freshman in 2023. He’s less of a run threat overall than Green and had a higher turnover-worthy play rate, but he’s also hard to sack and made more big-time throws for the Rebels.
- Player F is North Texas’s Chandler Rogers, who is accurate and takes care of the ball, but presents no run threat at all.
The thing that should jump out is that 2023 Jefferson (Player C) still graded higher on his passer-only numbers than Green, Maiava, or Criswell, and that was the worst of his three seasons as a starter. If there was any chance Arkansas could get the KJJ of 2021 and 2022 back, would you want to move on? And if so, which remaining option looks the best?
The main issue with Jefferson is that his ability to audible, read coverages, recognize pressures, and work through progressions is going to be paramount to his success in Petrino’s offense. I think Kendal Briles kept things overly simple for him, and that allowed his athleticism to shine, but it concealed issues in his game. Dan Enos then tried to help him take that step forward as a pro-style passer, but it obviously didn’t work. Does Jefferson want to try again? Can Arkansas afford that risk again? If not, a guy who has already demonstrated the ability to be more cerebral as a passer is probably who should get the job.
Running Back
What many were calling the deepest and most talented running back room in school history found itself exposed in 2023, probably more than any other unit. We worried here at Fayette Villains before the season that this could happen, but I don’t think anyone expected Arkansas’ backs to look this bad with a subpar offensive line.
Arkansas’ rushing success in 2021 and 2022 appears to largely be a product of a good run scheme and a quality offensive line. But Arkansas’ line got a bit worse in 2023, and, more importantly, the run scheme changed to a Dan Enos scheme that has never been great at generating big runs.
Now, Rocket Sanders and AJ Green are in the portal. Let’s see why they might be on the move, and why Isaiah Augustave and Rashod Dubinion may be coming back.
The key to interpreting this chart is to understand the difference between yards before contact (YBC) and yards after contact (YAC). YBC is primarily not something the running back creates; this is the “cushion” a back receives from his run blocking and scheme. Yes, running backs with great vision or quickness can create a little extra YBC, but for the most part, we measure running back skill with the latter number, YAC.
From there, we can see the problem that doomed Sanders. For his Arkansas career, he averaged just 3.1 YAC per rush, which isn’t great. He was never good after contact, even when he was having a great 2022 season. I guess you could call him a “system back”, but he benefitted from a great scheme and great blocking. When that went away, and he was asked to be a more traditional back without any schematic advantages, he struggled. That’s why he needs to choose very carefully where his next stop will be. South Carolina is supposedly a candidate; per SEC StatCat, they ranked dead-last in the SEC in generating YBC for their backs. That would be career suicide to go there.
Scheme
Schematically, Petrino’s offense isn’t as back-friendly as Briles’s. Like Enos, Petrino is going to prefer guys who can gut out YAC, because providing a ton of cushion isn’t top priority in the offense. Petrino’s linemen have to be able to protect the passer, so run blocking becomes secondary.
Unsurprisingly, then, Arkansas’ remaining backs include guys who can work without much help. Augustave in particular is an exciting option who flashed tremendous potential over the last couple games of the season. I think Dubinion could be a good player, but he’s got to be a little quicker to hit the hole. I like him as a receiver out the backfield, because I think his ability to shed tacklers in space will work better there.
Portal
Portal-wise, if Johnson comes back, there won’t be a ton of urgency in the transfer portal, because I think Augustave is capable of being the lead back with Johnson and Dubinion in supporting roles and incoming 4-star Braylen Russell perhaps competing. If they lose Johnson, they’ll need someone. Petrino typically prefers to go with committees of backs, so he’ll want a few options with different skillsets who can be the hot hand.
Wide Receiver and Tight End
I think we all wondered if transfers from Hillsdale, A&M-Commerce, and Bowling Green were going to be enough to replace what Arkansas was losing. You be the judge, with three other Pittman-era receivers thrown in at the bottom for comparison:
These numbers are not ideal, given that two of the three guys graded over 60 were both lost for the year after combining for 29 targets.
Andrew Armstrong is back, and his numbers are actually really good. He ventured down the field (12.7 aDOT), and while he wasn’t elite after the catch (5.5 YAC), he made up for it by only dropping 3% of his targets. If the Petrino scheme can help get that YAC up just a bit, he could be in for a special season.
Scheme
Speaking of Petrino, his scheme will emphasize YAC (yards after catch). The main schematic goal of the Petrino offense is to throw the ball down the field to receivers who catch it on the move, whether it’s shallow crosses or deep posts. His main formation will typically have three different receivers:
- The X, or split end, aligns opposite the tight end on the outside. This is your possession receiver. He is typically the tallest. Good hands in traffic and a big catch radius are the main skills this receiver needs; yards after catch is a nice bonus. The best example is Greg Childs.
- The slot receiver can align on the inside to either side, but in the base formation is typically inside the X. In 4-wide sets there may be two slots. This is a small, quick receiver. He typically runs in-breaking routes (consistent with the Oneback’s desire to test the linebackers in coverage) like shallow crosses. He’s best when he can catch a pass on the run and create YAC down the field. The best example is Jarius Wright, though Joe Adams also played some slot.
- The Z, or flanker, is the other outside receiver, and is typically opposite the X and with the tight end. He’s sort of a mix between the X and slot. He needs to be physical enough to make catches in traffic against tight man coverage, but he also critically must present a vertical threat with his speed. The best example is Cobi Hamilton, with Adams playing this spot as well.
That’s a bit over-simplified, but you get the gist.
Armstrong seems to fit as a flanker (like Cobi) in a Petrino offense. That’s basically what he was this year for the Hogs anyway. Arkansas will really need to figure out the other two roles. Isaac TeSlaa is back, and his numbers were not great, though I didn’t like how Enos and staff used him. Zero drops in 64 targets is awesome, but that’s about all that’s nice to say. He didn’t get down the field as much as I’d like (just 10.3 aDOT), and he got very little after the catch (4.1 YAC), even though his physical stature suggests he should be difficult to tackle down the field. Throwing short hitches to him makes it difficult. He’d be an X, but I suspect Arkansas would like to find someone else to at least split snaps with him. At best, he could be a dangerous outside threat that constantly draws safety help away, like a decoy, though the Hogs will actually have to hit him deep a few times early in the year for defenses to treat him that way.
Tyrone Broden could return, but he has the same profile as TeSlaa, but worse, as he has an even lower aDOT, lower YAC, and higher drop rate.
The guy who could make a jump is Jaedon Wilson. Yes, the 17% drop rate is horrible, but the 7.2 YAC is promising for a flanker or slot. Petrino’s scheme will reward that more than Enos’s did. If Isaiah Sategna is going to make a leap, that 3.9 YAC is going to have to go up, since speed (and thus separation, thus YAC) is supposed to be his thing.
The two tight ends returning is also great news, since Petrino likes receiving tight ends. They both graded well by going about it very differently: Luke Hasz was a downfield target (11.4 aDOT), while Ty Washington caught short and then worked after the catch (6.9 aDOT, 8.5 YAC). Neither dropped a pass.
Portal
Portal priority here is moderate, now that Armstrong and TeSlaa have confirmed their returns. I still think Arkansas needs a devastating X receiver, and I don’t think TeSlaa or Broden is it, but I could be proven wrong. I know Arkansas needs other slot options beyond Sategna and Wilson, so look for small and quick receivers who can be dangerous after the catch. Incoming 4-star recruit Ashton Bethel-Roman is pretty dangerous in space, so he could end up being a day one starter.
Offensive Line
We’ve already questioned whether departed offensive line coach Cody Kennedy was a scapegoat for problems that were mostly beyond his control. I tend to think that he was, but that at a fresh start for everyone was probably for best. Arkansas had young tackles, a change in scheme, and an overly-simple offense, and those three issues combined to make the line look really bad.
Either way, the Hogs now have Eric Mateos trying to figure out what to do with this unit. Expect the most portal activity here.
Not a lot of great numbers. It was a tough final season for Brady Latham, who was supposed to be one of the SEC’s better guards. Joshua Braun was pretty good, and the Hogs would love to have him for one more year. Beaux Limmer, likewise, was mostly solid outside of a few mishaps in pass protection.
The tackles, though, yikes. The top-rated tackle, Devon Manuel, is already in the portal. Ty’Kieast Crawford, the highest-graded pass protector, has another year if he wants it. Petrino’s scheme will favor pass protection over run blocking (hence the running back emphasis on YAC), so Crawford seems like a better fit with the new scheme than the old. Meanwhile, Patrick Kutas and Andrew Chamblee were quite bad overall and especially in pass protection, but they were starting as redshirt freshmen. Maybe they make a leap in their second year as a starter, but I expect they’ll be competing with new faces to hold on to those jobs.
Portal
Portal-wise, priority is obviously very high. Arkansas’ current roster is not going to be able to produce an SEC-caliber line, even if some of the young guys improve. Expect Arkansas to target linemen that grade well in pass protection, and I think you’ll see multiple scholarships used at both guard and tackle.
Up Next
Next, we’ll do this same exercise for the defense. Later on, we’ll look more closely at transfer portal offers and commitments.
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