Sitting at 10-4 in a three-way tie for second place in the SEC, every game matters. Texas A&M comes to town looking to break back into the double-bye conversation.
The current three-way tie for second is circular: Arkansas beat Tennessee who beat Alabama who beat Arkansas. But the Tide visit Knoxville on Saturday, so the circle will be broken. With a trip to Gainesville coming up on Saturday, the Hogs really need to win this one and give themselves a two-game cushion for a top-4 SEC seed.
- Matchup Analysis: Arkansas must match Texas A&M’s frantic energy
- Box Score Breakdown: Arkansas 94, Missouri 86
- Matchup Analysis: Do the shorthanded Hogs have enough length to tangle with the Tigers?
Meet the Aggies
No basketball fanbase experienced more whiplash in a coaching search than Texas A&M fans, who went from Buzz Williams – stodgy, unlikeable, running a slow, foul-heavy scheme – to Bucky McMillan. McMillan is young, personable, and loves to play fast. He spent 13 seasons at Mountain Brook High School in a Birmingham suburb, going 333-74 with a unique, up-tempo style of play that became known as “Bucky Ball”. Samford took a flyer on the young coach despite the fact he’d never been a college assistant, and it paid off nicely. By year four, Bucky Ball had produced a SoCon title, a 29-6 season, and a near-upset of Kansas in the first round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
So far in College Station, it’s been quite the ride.
The start with slow, with a 24-point blowout loss to Oklahoma State and several other iffy performances. But the Aggies figured something out in December, blowing out Florida State, winning at Pitt, and starting 7-1 in SEC play to crack the AP top-25 for a bit.
However, they faded when the schedule got tough. Four straight losses took some of the shine off, and while they’ve won two straight since, both were close games against Ole Miss and Oklahoma.
Model pick: Arkansas 93, Texas A&M 84. This game will feature plenty of pace and points.
Personnel
McMillan completely rebuild the Aggie roster on arrival. And give him some credit, while the Aggies lack high-end stars, they have a deep roster with lots of contributors.
Those minutes numbers in the left column should give you a hint about how the Aggies play. Because of the pace of Bucky Ball, they will substitute frequently and not let any one player dominate minutes to help everyone stay fresh. I am interested to see what happens if this game is close late. The Hogs have not looked exhausted late in games.
The Aggie leader is 6’7 senior center Rashaun Agee, who paces the team with 14.0 points and 8.9 rebounds per game. He’s not an overly efficient shooter (just 51% eFG%, including 24% from 3 on low attempts), but he draws a lot of fouls and produces nearly one-third of his points from the free throw line. He does everything else well: a good assist rate for a forward, low turnovers, a few steals, a few blocked shots. Most of all, he’s a monster on the boards, grabbing 20% of all missed shots while on the floor, including an eye-popping 30% of available defensive rebounds. The second he leaves the floor, the Aggies become a really bad defensive rebounding team. However, his lack of size will hurt him defensively against bigger opponents, like Arkansas.
The scoring trio
A trio of off-ball guards do most of the rest of the scoring. The most notable is 6’6 sophomore Ruben Dominguez, a 23-year-old former Spanish professional player whose eligibility has been the subject of debate, especially in light of the Charles Bediako saga. Dominguez averages 11.1 points per game and shoots 3-pointers almost exclusively, attempting 6.7 per game. He does very little else although he grades as a decent defender.
The major 3-point threat is 6’5 former Alabama and Kansas transfer Rylan Griffen, who scored three points in the Jayhawks’ loss to the Hogs in last year’s NCAA Tournament. Griffen sits at 11.2 points per game. He attempts 5.0 3-pointers per game and hits them at an excellent 42% clip. He’ll handle the ball a bit more than Dominguez, but his 15% turnover rate is way too high for a shooting guard. Defensively, he’s solid, with a 3.3% steal rate that makes him a key part of the Aggie press.
The final piece is 6’3 NC State transfer Marcus Hill, who also sits at 11.2 points per game. Hill is a slippery finisher inside the arc. His 3-point threat is minimal, but he shoots a high percentage from 2 and gets to the line at a decent rate. He’s not as good of a defender as Griffen or Dominguez.
Off the bench to spell this trio is 6’5 senior Ali Dibba, a very inefficient shooter who is a great press defender and decent rebounder.
The rest
The Aggies do not have a dominant point guard and they get ball movement from several guys, but they’ve tried three different guys as the primary ballhandler, and only one has worked out. That would be 6’0 senior Jacari Lane, a transfer from North Alabama. His 23% assist rate is fantastic, although his 15% turnover rate is a bit high. However, he doesn’t offer much of a scoring threat himself: he’s an inefficient 3-point shooter (31%, and most of his shots are 3s) and he’s not a good finisher inside the arc either. And he’s an average at best defender.
For an option that offers more scoring, the Aggies will go with 6’2 senior Pop Isaacs, who was solid at Texas Tech before getting hurt at Creighton last year. Isaacs shoots 40% from beyond the arc on high volume and is a decent offensive initiator, even if his turnover rate is a bit high (15%). However, he’s an atrocious defender, and asking him to stay in front of Darius Acuff is going to be like asking a squirrel to stop a semi truck on the freeway.
The other primary guard option is 6’1 junior Josh Holloway, who followed his coach from Samford. Holloway is an excellent press defender with a 3.3% steal rate and he’s a fairly efficient scorer (including 40% from 3 on low volume), but his 28% turnover rate is an absolute killer.
You’re probably wondering where all the size is, since we’ve just named a rotation shorter than Vanderbilt’s, which Arkansas crushed. The lone tall guy is 6’11 senior Zach Clemence, who rode the bench at Kansas for three years before transferring to College Station. Clemence can shoot: 44% from beyond the arc on a couple attempts per game. He’s an acceptable rebounder and shot blocker, although far from dominant and actually much worse than what you’d expect from a 6’11 guy on a team with no one else taller than 6’7. He also commits 2.5 fouls per game despite playing just 15 minutes per game, so any increase in his minutes would likely lead to constant foul trouble.
One guy that really doesn’t play much but might scare Hog fans is Texas Tech transfer Federiko Federiko, who caused the Hogs all kinds of trouble in last year’s Sweet 16 matchup. He only plays a few minutes a game, but the Aggies could bring him out just for old time’s sake.
The matchup
There are clear strengths and weaknesses here. The Aggies have a bunch of ballhandlers and get tremendous ball movement on the perimeter. If they get hot from beyond the arc, they are very difficult to stop. Defensively, they have several guys who can force turnovers. Additionally, Agee at 6’7 is the exact size and skillset of guys who have given the Razorbacks problems all year.
However, Agee is not a stretch-4 like what we’ve seen from other guys who have caused problems, like Missouri’s Mark Mitchell on Saturday. And the lack of height for the Aggies could be a real issue. Tennessee had 60 rebounds (!), including 24 offensive, against them. Florida doubled them up in points in the paint (48-24) and had 17 offensive boards. Missouri also doubled them up (56-28) and had 16 offensive boards. As we’ll see in the team stats, the Aggies offset their lack of height with turnover-forcing, but if they aren’t able to force turnovers, they aren’t going to get many stops. They couldn’t turn over Florida or Vanderbilt and lost both games in blowout fashion.
When Arkansas has the rock
Texas A&M’s defense hasn’t been that good this year, but it is a true ball pressure defense. The Hogs have not seen many of those this season.
The Aggies use perimeter pressure to keep the ball out of the paint. Against teams with bad guardplay, it works. Against teams with good guardplay, it usually doesn’t. Arkansas has elite guardplay, but again, we haven’t seen the Hogs against this kind of scheme much all year.
Many uptempo teams can be put in a bind when you run on them, and the Aggie defense is no exception. They’ve been horrible in fast break and transition situations all year, so the Hogs should be able to punish them there.
The Aggies do a few things well on defense. Their ball pressure keeps teams out of the paint (55th) and forces turnovers (86th). Frazzled opponents that cannot get good ball movement will either turn it over or launch a defended 3-pointer. However, opponents patient and skilled enough can finish in the paint (200th), draw fouls (168th), and generate assisted baskets (289th), while taller teams can punish the Aggies on the offensive glass (206th).
If the Hogs can break the Aggie pressure and get into their offense like normal, this will be a tough day for the folks in maroon. All indications on paper suggest that Arkansas has too much length and too much skill at the guard position to have much of a problem with the relentless press. That said, I think Calipari will need to substitute more than usual or his main guys, namely Acuff, are going to be gassed by game’s end. As good as Acuff is, DJ Wagner is also well-suited to deal with this Aggie attack, as he’s always been a very low-turnover point guard.
When Texas A&M has the rock
Arkansas’ willingness to allow teams to run on them is a bit scary, because Texas A&M is going to go-go-go on offense. The Aggies don’t get a ton of true fast breaks (154th), but they will aggressively push the pace (14th in transition rate, 12th in average possession length) anyway and can punish any lazy getbacks.
The Aggies don’t do a whole lot in the paint, but they will put up a high volume of shots, especially from the 3-point line. They are solid at avoiding turnovers and also at offensive rebounding. Agee is the best offensive rebounder, but Hill and Dibba are solid, and Federiko has the highest rate on the team at 13% in his limited minutes.
The biggest risk here is the Aggies getting hot from beyond the arc and Arkansas being unable to limit their shot attempts. The Hogs have not been a good turnover-forcing team this year, and their defensive rebounding is trending in the wrong direction.
Let’s see why the Hogs are trending in the wrong direction on defensive rebounding. Here are the Hogs’ top defensive rebounders this year, in terms of percentage of missed shots on defense while they are in the floor where they get the rebound:
The issue is obvious: Arkansas lost a 17% defensive rebounder and replaced him with a 10% defensive rebounder in the lineup. Billy Richmond is more active on the offensive glass than Karter Knox (7.6% to 6.8%), but Knox is much better on defense and overall as a rebounder. That’s hurting Arkansas’ ability to clear defensive boards in games since Knox got hurt.
Keys to the game
No panicked possessions. The Aggies depend on forcing turnovers and making opposing offenses hurry themselves into a bad shot. The Hogs need to break the pressure and then push for the best shot instead of settling.
Dominate the offensive glass. The Aggies have had major issues defending the glass against bigger teams. Arkansas is going to give up offensive rebounds of their own, but they can neutralize the Aggie advantage by creating second chances of their own.
Get back in transition. At home, you really don’t want a slow start, but that’s what will happen if the Hogs are lackadaisical after a missed shot on their end. The Aggies want to run and will get cheap baskets if the Hogs are not ready.
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