Fayette Villains

Arkansas is off to a 2-0 start in conference play for a the first time in many years. Alongside Vanderbilt and Alabama, they’ve emerged as one of the favorites for the SEC title. A road win over Auburn on Saturday would be huge, given the manageable upcoming schedule.

We discussed this before the Ole Miss game, but Arkansas would like to do the following to start conference play:

Beat Tennessee (done)
Split road games against Ole Miss and Auburn (done)
Beat South Carolina
Split tough ranked games at Georgia and home versus Vanderbilt
Go at least 5-1 over the following three weeks (home against LSU, Kentucky, and Auburn, road against LSU, Mississippi State, and Oklahoma)

That would put the Hogs at 9-3 in the SEC with a difficult back end coming up: road trips to Florida and Alabama, plus a home-and-home against suddenly-dangerous Mizzou.

Beating Auburn gets things ahead of schedule. In fact, a 12-0 SEC start isn’t completely out of the question, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

Meet the Tigers

After years near the top of the SEC and a pair of Final Fours, Bruce Pearl suddenly retired in the fall. The timing of his retirement was clearly to ensure that the Tigers had no choice but to replace Pearl with his son, Steven, an assistant at Auburn since 2017 who has held no other college jobs.

Bruce might also have known that this Auburn team was likely to take a major step back after a run of success with big man Johni Broome and fiery guard Chad Baker-Mazara, both of whom have departed (the latter to play for Eric Musselman at USC). The new-look Tigers stumbled out of the gate this season, letting Bethune-Cookman take them to overtime. Defense has been an issue all year.

Until SEC play started, Auburn was fine. Their best win – St. John’s – doesn’t look as great now as the Johnnies have struggled, but their four losses were to teams currently ranked 1st, 2nd, 5th, and 7th in the AP poll. But opening SEC play 0-2 and looking lost on defense have opened up the door for the Tigers to fall back onto the bubble. Expect them to be hungry to get a big win against the Hogs and right the ship.

Model pick: Arkansas 88, Auburn 87. Get ready for some points. Auburn can score but their 120th-ranked defense is holding them back.

Personnel

As you can see from the minutes numbers, Auburn doesn’t go deep into the bench. They have a clear five-man lineup that’s pretty small, and they’ll rotate two bigs when they need more size.

Auburn’s trio

Any discussion of Auburn’s personnel has to start with the “trio” who happen to be only three guys on the roster who have both 1) played at least two-thirds of minutes this season, and 2) have usage rates above 20%, qualifying them as “high usage”. Those three would be 6’7 wing Keyshawn Hall, 6’1 point guard Tahaad Pettiford, and 6’5 guard Kevin Overton. For the season, about 54% of Auburn’s possession-ending plays (shot chances plus turnovers) have come from those three. Everyone else plays a supporting role.

Hall is the scoring machine, averaging 20.9 points and 8.2 rebounds per game. Pearl has always had freaky-athletic wings who act as rim-runners and volume scorers, and Hall is the latest. Like the guys who came before him, Hall isn’t an overly efficient shooter (just 56% eFG%, which is good but not great), but he’s an absolute foul merchant who will make a living at the free throw line. He’s attempted more free throws (127) than two-point field goals (104) this year, and he’s an 86% foul shooter. If Auburn gets a friendly home whistle, watch out.

Hall is also a very good offensive rebounder, and he doesn’t turn it over much (14%). Defensively, though, he’s a liability. He’ll block a few shots, but Auburn’s defense is significantly worse with him in the game (113.9 defensive efficiency, worst on the team) than on the bench (95.7, best).

Pettiford (14.9 points per game) has increased his raw production since last year, but it’s come with a major hurt to his efficiency. His eFG% is a dismal 46%, and he’s shooting just 30% from beyond the arc, despite taking more than half his attempts from there. His turnover rate of 14% is pretty solid for a point guard who initiates the offense, but his 2.9 assists per game are low. Like Hall, he is not a good defender at all.

Overton, the transfer from Texas Tech, has the highest Adjusted Plus-Minus on the team thanks to his well-roundedness. His 13.1 points per game have come on rocky shooting (52% eFG%), but he shoots a decent 36% from beyond the arc and takes more than half his shots from there. His turnover rate is very low (7%), which is what you want from a 3-and-D guard. And Overton definitely offers the “defense” part of that role. His 3.1% steal rate leads the team, and he grades as a solid perimeter defender.

The role players

Auburn only gives good minutes to four other guys, and they are all low-usage (meaning they don’t shoot a ton). Starter-level minutes have gone to a pair of 6’8 stretch forwards, Sebastian Williams-Adams and Elyjah Freeman.

Williams-Adams (7.1 points per game) grades well, despite horrifying free throw shooting (28 of 61, 46%). Like Hall, he’ll draw a ton of fouls. He also finishes very well around the rim and shoots 59% eFG%. Defensively, he offers an excellent 2.9% steal rate despite being a very poor rebounder for his size.

Freeman (10.3 points per game) is a better rebounder, and offers more perimeter shooting (34% on a couple attempts per game). Defensively, he also has a high steal rate at 2.7%.

The five players named so far feature no one taller than 6’8, and all three guys 6’7 or taller are deficient on the defensive boards. As you can imagine, this small lineup will be punished by teams with Arkansas’ length. To get more height, the Tigers will use 6’10 Keshawn Murphy and 6’8 Filip Jovic. Murphy (9.7 points per game, 5.8 rebounds per game) is the team’s best defensive rebounder and shot blocker. Auburn’s defense has been slightly better with him on the floor this year, though the offense has been worse. Jovic (5.9 points per game, 4.7 rebounds per game) has been a monster on the offensive glass, creating lots of shot chances and fouls around the basket with his aggressiveness. He’s a very bad defender, however. The other guy in the table above, 7-foot center Emeka Opurum, is out for the season with for a “medical issue”, though he was averaging just 10 minutes per game as a rim protector.

The only guard off the bench is 6’2 freshman Kaden Magwood. He likely won’t play much and he’s shooting just 44% eFG%, so the Tigers would rather him not shoot.

Overall, Auburn’s challenge is that their best lineup is too small against bigger SEC teams like Arkansas, but bringing in their 6’10 guy hurts their offense more than it helps their defense. They don’t have much depth and are heavily dependent on drawing fouls offensively.

When Auburn has the rock

Pearl teams typically play very fast, but the Tigers have slowed down a bit this year, ranking 111th at 16.5 seconds per offensive possession. They don’t get in transition as often as they’d like (152nd), though they are very efficient on their transition possessions (21st).

With Auburn, it’s all about shot volume. The Tigers rank just 79th in team Effective Field Goal percentage, but they win games by pouring in extra shots. That’s what Effective Possession Ratio (EPR) measures: the Tigers get 104.3 shot chances per 100 possessions, 17th-most in the nation. They create those possessions through offensive rebounds (10th), and they end many of them at the free throw line (27th in attempt rate).

Auburn will do a ton off the dribble, as they assist on only 49% of their made baskets (271st). They want to get Hall and Pettiford isolated on a defender and then try and get a bucket or foul off the drive. The Razorbacks don’t foul (30th), and they defend jump shots decently (48th against midrange jumpers, 73rd against 3-pointers).

You always worry about a home whistle, especially at Auburn, but if the Hogs can avoid fouling and then at least compete on the defensive boards, they can probably get enough stops to win if Auburn doesn’t get red-hot from 3.

When Arkansas has the rock

Arkansas needs only be competitive defensively because they should have a large advantage on offense.

Get ready to run. Auburn’s aggressiveness in pursuing offensive rebounds leaves them vulnerable in transition opportunities. The Tigers allowed 27 transition points to Bethune-Cookman in their opener and it’s been all downhill sense. Texas A&M and Georgia – two of the fastest-paced teams in the SEC – punished them in transition as well. Auburn now ranks 310th in Opponent Transition Efficiency, 226th in Opponent Transition Rate, and 259th in Opponent Fast Break Scoring Rate. Arkansas obviously pours it in on fast break opportunities (2nd) and generally wants to play fast (26th in Transition Rate, 21st in Average Possession Length).

If you can protect the ball and rebound decently on defense, Auburn will give you all kinds of chances for easy buckets, as they are also bad in the paint (254th) and off turnovers (212th).

Auburn will force some turnovers, which is always a concern playing on the road. Arkansas had three turnovers in the final minutes against Ole Miss, which made it harder to close that game out. Unlike Ole Miss, Auburn won’t foul a ton (78th) when going for turnovers.

Unfortunately for the Tigers, that’s where the strengths end. Auburn’s lack of size is easy to punish, as the Tigers are bad on the defensive boards (222nd) and generally bad at defending the paint (196th in attempt rate, 235th in eFG%). For good measure, they also don’t defend the 3-point line well (207th).

As with Arkansas’ first two SEC opponent defenses, Tennessee and Ole Miss, you want to isolate and attack them with more length. They can trap and create havoc against offenses that get bunched up, but spacing offenses that have driving guards and protect the ball are going to cause problems for them. That describes Arkansas’ offense perfectly.

Just as we’ve seen before, the Hogs have to make sure they don’t settle for too many bad shots. Ole Miss’s defense is built to force midrange jumpers, so the Hogs having an elevated midrange usage rate in that game is forgivable. But Auburn’s not forcing many midrange shots, so a high midrange rate would signal timidity against an aggressive opponent, and that can get you beat.

Keys to the game

Focus from start to finish. The biggest risk for this Arkansas team, because of its lackluster defense, is a couple long stretches of sloppy offense. Auburn’s defense is poor, but the Tigers do force turnovers and this game is in a difficult venue to win, so the ingredients are there for the Razorback offense to have some bad shot selection or sloppy play for a while, opening the door for the Tigers to take control with their own talented offense.

Compete on the boards. Auburn’s offensive rebounding is elite, but its defensive rebounding is not. The Hogs would be happy with a “push” in the rebounding department, especially if they can also win turnovers. That would negate Auburn’s shot volume, which is the key to any Tiger victory.

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