It wasn’t always pretty, but 2-0 in the SEC is 2-0 in the SEC. Arkansas nearly blew double-digit leads in both halves but held on late to beat Ole Miss 94-87 in Oxford on Wednesday night.
Darius Acuff had 26 points and nine assists – including 20 and six in the second half – while Trevon Brazile had 18 points on four made 3-pointers, a few of which were assisted by Acuff. The college basketball (and NBA) world is now fully aware of Acuff, who has earned the title of “next great Calipari guard”.
Acuff’s six 20-point games are tied with Moses Moody for most by a Razorback freshman ever. It’s still early January. There are 17 remaining regular season games, plus at least two postseason games. Acuff is on a trajectory to end up as the greatest freshman in school history, and he could be aiming for more by the time this season is over.
What’s not on a great trajectory is the Arkansas defense. Yes, Ole Miss made some contested shots and got a career game from a non-contributor, but Arkansas’ defense is far from elite and hasn’t really looked elite all season. If Acuff has to put up 26 and 9 every night, or Brazile has to go 4 of 5 from beyond the arc, then the Hogs are probably going to drop some SEC games that they shouldn’t.
- Matchup Analysis: Get ready to run against Auburn
- Box Score Breakdown: Arkansas 94, Ole Miss 87
- Matchup Analysis: Arkansas’ 3-point shooting must make the trip to Oxford
Advanced stats
Arkansas led throughout but couldn’t close the door until late. The Hogs had two different 10-point leads in the first half and built the lead to 80-64 with about eight minutes left in the game, but Ole Miss couldn’t miss after that, outscoring the Hogs 23-14 over the final eight-ish minutes to keep the final score respectable. I have no data on this, but anecdotally, the theme of “build a big lead and then white-knuckle the finish” seems to be on the rise. Eric Musselman’s teams did this regularly, as did John Calipari’s last year (it burned them against Texas Tech in the Sweet 16). Just this week, Texas A&M, TCU, and Providence all blew double-digit leads with just a few minutes left (the Aggies survived, the other two lost in overtime). TCU’s win probability against Kansas, for example, peaked at 99.4% and was above 90% for more than 10 minutes of game time in the second half, per ESPN data. I have no idea what’s driving this or if it’s even true that these kind of comebacks are on the rise, but it’s certainly interesting.
I mentioned in the preview that a weakness of Ole Miss defense is that it only works well if it has time to get set up. While the Hogs only had eight fast break points, their 14 transition possessions yielded 13 scoring trips and 28 points.
Defensively, the Hogs allowed too many transition chances (18) and were not good in halfcourt defense (114.5) against a bad halfcourt offense. Yuck.
As we expected, both teams took a lot of midrange shots, but Ole Miss’s inability to hit jump shots cost them in the end. Despite shooting 56% on their midrange jumpers (chalk that up as bad luck for the Razorback defense), the Rebels got outgunned from beyond the arc.
One of the themes of the preview was that Arkansas’ jump shooting needed to make the trip to Oxford, because the Rebel No Middle defense would probably take away easy shots around the rim but allow open 3-point looks:
Ole Miss wants to take away dribble penetration. In the past, you’d use a 2-3 zone for that, but the No Middle instead rotates the away defender (that is, a defender who is not guarding the ball or a man who is near the ball) down to the low block. As the name implies, they want to force the ball to one side and create a 4-on-5 situation where the offense has a random guy in the opposite corner who cannot help at all, while his man is underneath the basket preventing you from driving.
The No Middle is vulnerable in a lot of the same ways a zone is. Sudden ball reversals can lead to open 3-point looks on the other side. The No Middle makes it hard to reverse, but a guard driving downhill and kicking across to the opposite side can create an open look almost every time.
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Ole Miss is generally good at keeping opponents out of the paint (54th), instead forcing lots of midrange jumpers (44th-most) and allowing lots of 3-point attempts (228th). Unfortunately for them, those 3-point looks tend to be open, and opponents are hitting 51% eFG% against them this year, which ranks 222nd nationally.
It shouldn’t be surprising, but Arkansas knew exactly what it was doing in attacking this defense. Particularly devastating was this play, where the Hogs overloaded the left side, parked Brazile and Karter Knox in the corners, and had Acuff drive right:
Brazile hit back-to-back 3-pointers on this play. Watch Acuff’s man through several loops of the gif. You can see the defender’s right foot move right before Acuff drives. What’s happening is that Acuff is duping the defender into thinking he’s going to try to go to the left side, where he has three teammates in a triangle spacing. The principles of the No Middle defense want to force the ball to one side and not allow it to cross back over. Acuff is shaded right so the defender plants his right foot to prevent him from moving back left, forcing him to the empty side. When Acuff beats his man off the dribble, Brazile’s defender steps in to help, allowing the kick for an open 3. If that man hadn’t helped, Acuff had other options: take it himself (not likely as Nick Pringle’s defender had come over to help as well), dump off to Pringle for an easy layup (possible, but would be easier if that was Malique Ewin), or kick into the corner to Knox for a wide-open 3 (tough pass but the shot would be open).
If you have a good point guard, good spacing, and a few good shooters, you can basically do whatever you want on offense. After Chris Beard had the No Middle all the rage in the college basketball world back in 2018 and 2019, offenses figured out that even more pacing and even more spacing is how you beat it.
Weird game for Ole Miss. Eduardo Klafke, who I didn’t even mention in the preview because he wasn’t top-nine on the team in minutes, had a career day with 11 points, three assists, and two steals.
For Arkansas, look at Ewin and Billy Richmond. Ewin was plus-20 and Richmond plus-17. Contrast that with the guys who sub in and out for them: Knox was minus-13 and Pringle minus-12. There’s actually a simple explanation: Pringle and Knox are better defensively, so they played late as the Hogs’ 16-point lead was whittled down to the final margin of seven. I don’t think that’s necessarily a cause for concern. Single-game plus-minus can be helpful to tell a story, but you have to be careful drawing sweeping conclusions from it.
It’s also interesting that despite 26 and 9, the model says Acuff only contributed plus-2.8 points, and he ranked just third in offensive contribution. Going just 7 of 18 from the field had a lot to do with that: his 26 points came in 24 shot chances, which isn’t overly efficient. Brazile’s 18 points, on the other hand, came on just nine shot chances. The other factor is that Arkansas’ offense was mostly fine when Acuff left the game, and the Hogs actually outscored the Rebels while Acuff was on the bench. Not so for Brazile (plus-8 on, minus-1 off) or Richmond (plus-17 on, minus-10 off). Skeptics of Acuff – either of his all-America potential or his NBA potential – will continue to point to stats like that as proof that while Acuff is a very productive volume scorer, he’s not nearly as indispensable to the Razorbacks as you might think. I don’t know that I agree with that criticism, but I certainly see where it comes from, as I’ve been saying since November.
Highlights
Up next
The Hogs have accomplished their goal of going at least 1-1 in this two-game road trip. On Saturday they’ll visit struggling Auburn with a chance to start 3-0 in SEC play. Our models say the Tigers are slightly better than the Rebels, but the Hogs should be favored, even on the road.
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