At 2-4, the clock is ticking on the Razorbacks to make something out of this disappointing season. Their next opportunity features their highest-ranked remaining opponent: Texas A&M.

Bobby Petrino was 3-0 against Texas A&M, winning a blowout (47-19 in 2009) and then two close games (24-17 in 2010, 42-38 in 2011) as the rivalry resumed as a non-conference series. Since this firing, the Hogs are just 1-12 against the Aggies as SEC members. The lone win came in 2021 (20-10), though the Hogs came extremely close several times: 2014, 2015, and 2017 all went into overtime, and the Hogs lost one-score games in 2018, 2019, 2022, and 2024. No football series has provided as much heartbreak as this one over the last decade-plus.

Meet the Aggies

Mike Elko is 14-5 in his second season in College Station since replacing the expensive Jimbo Fisher. He promised a blue-collar mentality, discipline, and toughness, and to his credit, he has delivered on all three. Unlike his predecessors Fisher and Kevin Sumlin, Elko has demonstrated an ability to maximize the ample talent Texas A&M has access to in east Texas, which is a scary thought.

The Aggies had high expectations in the preseason after returning a ton of key players, especially on offense, and adding some high-profile transfers, including receivers Mario Craver and KC Concepcion. They’ve played five home games already, but their only impressive win was a big one: Notre Dame in South Bend.

The Aggies are now up to fourth in the AP poll. They finished in the top-5 in both 2012 and 2020, but this is their highest ranking in a game against Arkansas since 1975, when this happened to the second-ranked Aggies in the season finale in Little Rock:

The Aggies fumbled nine times that day. Maybe the Hogs can make some silly like that happen on Saturday.

Model pick: Texas A&M 32, Arkansas 28. The Hogs moved up from 54th to 47th following last week’s loss to Tennessee, which, as I noted in the Box Score Breakdown, the model essentially views as a win.

When Arkansas has the ball

With Texas A&M, you’re always most concerned about the defensive front. The Aggies had a monster line last year, and they had Keyshawn Blackstock in a bad place in last year’s 21-17 game in Arlington.

The good news? Most of those guys are gone. The bad news? The guys who replaced them in the front six are also very good.

The Aggie secondary does have some holes. Cornerback Will Lee III, who carries the ambitious nickname “The Blanket”, has been pretty average, if that, this year. The Hogs could not run the ball at all in last year’s game, but Taylen Green threw for 279 yards. We could be setting up for a similar game this year.

Elko has a very clear strategy in how he schemes and calls his defense. He once claimed that his defenses are “the most vanilla in the country on first and second down“. The numbers bear that out, with Texas A&M not ranking inside the top-35 for any major standard downs statistic. He lives for third down, which is team is built to win with exotic pressures and coverages. The Aggies are top-5 nationally in EPA per Play, Yards per Play, and Success Rate on passing downs. They are ranked 1st nationally in raw Third Down Defense… though it’s notable that they are only 15th in Marginal Third Down Defense (which accounts for distances), because the conversions they do allow tend to be third-and-longs.

That makes this a fascinating matchup between offensive and defensive minds, since few play callers in college football are better than Petrino on third-and-long. Arkansas ranks third in Marginal Third Down Offense this year after ranking in the top-15 last year. The Hogs torched Elko’s defense on a third-and-10 on the opening drive last year with a 75-yard touchdown pass to Isaac TeSlaa, but unfortunately, the Aggies won most of the game’s other passing downs.

The big difference this year is that Arkansas’ early downs offense is much better, so they aren’t relying on winning third-and-long. The big difference has been the run game.

The run fits by the linebackers and safeties are very good from A&M, allowing them to rank 11th in preventing opportunity runs and 6th in preventing successful runs. However, unlike a year ago, they are not stuffing many runs behind the line of scrimmage (100th). Another risk to the Aggies is that the back end of the run defense has sprung some leaks: they rank just 56th in highlight yards per opportunity run (runs that gain 4+ against them average an additional 5.4 yards per carry), and 11% of rushes against them gain 10+, good for 33rd.

Arkansas should be able to get some big runs in this game, which will take a ton of pressure off of Green and the passing game. Any chance of an upset probably involves the Hogs hitting several big runs, which is very doable.

As you might expect for a defense built on winning third down, Elko’s front will get some pressure. The Aggies rank 5th in opponent-adjusted sack rate. The only good news for Arkansas is that unlike last year, they generally have to blitz in order to get pressure, so that could leave some vulnerabilities on the back end.

So let’s talk about that back end. PFF gives the Aggie pass coverage a total grade of 88, which is excellent. But that doesn’t really match with the individual grades in the secondary we saw at the beginning of this section. There are two reasons for this.

First, the Aggie linebackers are very good in pass coverage, so this probably won’t be a breakout game for Rohan Jones, former Aggie Jaden Platt, or Mike Washington out of the backfield. The Aggies have intercepted only two passes all season, and both of them were by members of the defensive front. The highest-graded coverage player is middle linebacker Taurean York.

The second issue is definitely worth watching, as it provides Arkansas’ best chance to break through the Aggie defense: tackling in the secondary. Led by starting corner Dezz Ricks with eight, PFF has charged the Aggies with 26 missed tackles on pass plays (against 100 completed tackles, so 26%). For comparison, the much-maligned Razorback secondary has only missed 18 tackles on 118 pass play tackles (15%). I’m wondering if you’ll see a guy like Kam Shanks – who had three catches against Tennessee – get some work against a secondary that might struggle to get him on the ground.

Ingredients for an upset

Typically, the better team in a football game will have a higher net success rate. That’s one of the reasons that statistic is so valuable. But the better team doesn’t always win. The recipe for an upset is when crazy things happen on third down and with explosive plays. The Razorback offense is elite at both, and while Texas A&M is very good on third down, their defense has some vulnerabilities in terms of explosive plays, both on the ground and through the air.

Based on this alone, Arkansas is well-positioned for an upset. However, there’s another side of the ball…

When Texas A&M has the ball

Consistency and experience on the Texas A&M offense are the real reason the Aggies are undefeated. They had some quarterback controversy a year ago. Conner Weigman opened the year as the starter after losing almost all of his 2023 season to injury. But he got hurt after just two games, giving way to the raw-but-athletic Marcel Reed. Reed struggled as a passer but offered dynamism as a runner. The Aggies went back to Weigman midseason but switched during the LSU game and ended up sticking with Reed down the stretch, even through a 1-4 finish to the season.

Weigman transferred to Houston, and the job is now Reed’s. He’s made some improvement as a passer, but it’s been the very good work of offensive coordinator Collin Klein and some big spending on weapons in the transfer portal that have really allowed the Aggies to make an offensive jump.

Mississippi State transfer Mario Craver and NC State transfer KC Concepcion are the stars of this offense. They were two of the most sought-after receivers in the portal, and they were clearly worth whatever the Aggies paid for them.

The Aggies have a mediocre offensive line, no other valid passing game targets, and a quarterback who struggles when forced to pass. And yet, this is a pretty good offense.

Klein wants to keep this offense on-schedule as much as possible to make Reed’s life easy. The Aggies are top-10 nationally in EPA per play, yards per play, success rate, and explosive rate on standard downs. More than half (54%) of their first downs are eventually converted into a touchdown or another first down without ever reaching third down.

On passing downs, however, the Aggies will struggle. They rank outside the top-100 in those same four stats on passing downs. They are surprisingly decent on third down, although again, most of their third downs are short.

Arkansas’ defense has been bad on standard downs and an absolute tire fire on passing downs. Against Tennessee last week, the Hogs showed modest improvement in defending passing downs. Winning these situations (mostly third-and-5 or more, but also not allowing a conversion when you get second-and-15 after a penalty, for example) is a pretty obvious way the Hogs could pull an upset. A quarterback who is a little bit iffy when his offense is off-schedule, on the road, against a team that is going to keep the pressure on to keep scoring… those are all potential ingredients for an upset.

Outside of Memphis rolling up 290 yards on the ground, the Razorback run defense hasn’t been just awful. They have an active defensive line that stuffs runs at a decent rate (28th), meaning that their “runs up to six yards” figure (line yards) is a not-awful 47th. But when a run does get through the front, it’s trouble: the 46% of runs that gain 4+ average an additional 6.1 yards (109th), and 18% of all rushing attempts gain 10+ yards (129th out of 136 FBS teams).

Just like the old Kansas State offense that Klein once quarterbacked, the Aggies want to use the run game to stay on schedule. Very few runs go backward and it’s hard to hold them to less than three yards on any single carry. The vast majority of their runs gain between three and eight yards. If the back end of the Razorback defense can avoid giving up huge runs – and that’s a really big if – then they may can keep the Aggies from hurting them too badly here.

Starting tailback Le’Veon Moss is out for this game after being injured last week. That’s a pretty significant blow. Backup Reuben Owens is a talented veteran, but he’s been a step down from Moss.

Reed’s passing numbers look solid overall, which is a testament to how well the Aggies mix up their play calling on early downs. When forced to pass, Reed has been iffy, but elite receivers have helped him out especially on early downs. Arkansas is going to have a hard time covering Craver and Concepcion.

Reed’s escapability is also a concern for the Hogs, even if they can get pressure. Pass protection for the Aggies has mostly been fine on paper, as Reed is pressured on just 25% of his dropbacks. But Texas A&M has yet to face an elite pass rush; in fact, Arkansas’ 74 pass rush grade from PFF is the highest of any Aggie opponent so far this year. So I think the Hogs can generate some pressure. But Reed is being sacked on just 10% of his pressured dropbacks, so he’s been able to get away from opponents repeatedly. Poor Notre Dame pressured him 17 times but failed to actually bring him down in the backfield. On the other hand, Auburn kept their game close by recording 12 pressures and, more importantly, three sacks. I think making Reed uncomfortable is going to be important for the Hogs to keep the Aggies from scoring too many points.

Keys to the game

Win third down. It doesn’t get much clearer in terms of game keys. Offensively, Arkansas will probably move the ball just fine on early downs, but the Aggies will be ready to pounce when they get off-schedule. That’s where the Hogs have to recover with chunk plays in high-leverage situations. The Hogs’ ability to convert on third down (and 2nd-and-11+) is going to be key. On the other side, the A&M offense will do almost all of its damage on early downs. Letting them off the hook in passing situations is going to make it almost impossible to win.

YAC, YAC, YAC. The Aggies can prevent successful plays just fine, but they’ve been hit by explosives a few times, with missed tackles in the secondary being the biggest culprit. I’d like to see the Hogs come out throwing on early downs, mixing the run game with high-percentage short completions to receivers on the move, putting pressure on the Aggie secondary to tackle properly.