The Sam Pittman era may be over, but that was a very Pittman-like loss on Saturday. Arkansas started strong and gave good effort, but also lost three fumbles in a one-score loss on the road.

Apologies for the late post: our data was delayed until Monday, hence a Monday post.

The data may be new, but the story is the same:

That’s a 61% postgame win expectancy against Tennessee, and you may remember the Hogs were at 68% against Ole Miss. Based on those numbers, here are Arkansas’ odds of each possible SEC record:

• 41% chance of 2-0
• 46% chance of 1-1
• 13% chance of 0-2

This team is 0-2 in the SEC. Our model has their SEC record at 1.29-0.71, but in the end, you are what your record says you are. The good news is that Arkansas only has one remaining opponent as good as Ole Miss or Notre Dame; the bad news is that opponent is the one coming to Fayetteville on Saturday. If Bobby Petrino can get his team to not let go of the rope, they can still make some noise.

That next-to-last stat is the reason the model thinks the Hogs should have won: when you create more scoring chances than your opponent, you control your own destiny. Unfortunately, the Hogs fumbled their destiny away. For the third time in four games, they failed to force a turnover. And the offense lost three fumbles.

The good news for the Hogs was on passing downs. Defensively, the Hogs – who entered Saturday with the worst passing downs defense in the Power Four – had a solid outing, liming the Vols to just five successful plays in 16 passing downs. They managed to get several stops by holding Tennessee well below expectations on third down.

Offensively, after a disastrous showing on passing downs against Notre Dame, Arkansas’ offense was back to its old self on passing downs against Tennessee, producing 8.9 yards per play on passing downs with an excellent +22% marginal third down conversion rate (their actual conversion rate was 22% higher than what you’d expect given the distances faced).

Unfortunately, the passing downs fun merely made this game close. Arkansas lost on standard downs. Defensively, this was not surprising. As we discussed in the preview, the Volunteer offense is a wagon on early downs, stringing together first downs without ever falling off schedule. And the Hogs just couldn’t get them off-schedule enough. Of Tennessee’s 65 plays, 49 of them (75%) came on standard downs, and 27 of those were successful.

Offensively, the Hogs did manage 10 explosives on standard downs, but they averaged just 5.9 yards per play (not bad, but not amazing) and lost three fumbles. That will cause that negative EPA that we see in the table above. If the offense can stop turning the ball over, they could be really elite.

These two run games were absolute mirror images of each other. Every stat is virtually identical.

Tennessee was more efficient through the air, but Arkansas proved more willing to throw, recording nine additional called passes. The Hogs were once again unable to record a sack. Only allowing two to a very good Tennessee pash rush isn’t bad at all.

Here are the ProFootballFocus grades, starting with the Hogs on offense:

Taylen Green’s grade of 70 is actually his second-worst of the season. Mike Washington and Fernando Carmona were the MVPs of the offense. Not shown here (because he didn’t start) is Kam Shanks, who recorded a season-high 76 and actually played a factor in this game.

Good for Xavian Sorey, who actually played pretty well. But that other linebacker spot is a mess. Stephen Dix was benched in favor of Bradley Shaw, who has been taking a bunch of his snaps anyway. But Shaw earned a dismal 42 grade. In 45 snaps (Dix ended up with 49, spelling both Shaw and Sorey at times), he had just two tackles and was also charged with a missed tackle and a 10-yard reception on his only target. PFF laid most of the blame for Arkansas’ run defense issues at the feet of Shaw and Justus Boone.

One thing I don’t love seeing is that in the first game after Deke Adams is fired, the defensive line played that poorly. I don’t really understand why Adams was fired, as defensive line has been a relative strength for the last two or three seasons. All four guys on this chart came in well under their season averages in terms of grading.

Up next

Sixth-ranked Texas A&M visits Fayetteville on Saturday. Petrino was 3-0 against the Aggies as Arkansas’ coach, and the Hogs are 1-12 since his 2012 firing. It’s going to be a tall task, but it’s a winnable game.