Last Saturday, the sky was falling. The Hogs were going 2-10 and everyone needed to be fired immediately, or maybe the whole football program should just be shut down (or leave the SEC). The Sunday discussions sounded like a funeral.
As usual, the week went on, and most fans eventually shifted focus to the next game. At the Walmart AMP on Thursday night, Ben Rector put on a Razorback jersey, led a Hog call, and talked about beating Notre Dame. Though it didn’t seem like it as Memphis took a final knee at the Liberty Bowl, every remaining game on the schedule is winnable.
That said, Saturday still felt like a final turning point, so we should probably discuss it.
How hot is Sam Pittman’s seat?
My guess at this point is that it’s nearly guaranteed that the Hogs will have a new football coach next season, so it is more a matter of “when” than “if”. The Memphis loss was probably the last straw for Pittman, who falls to just 7-19 in one-score games at Arkansas. You just can’t keep giving games away like that. Through six seasons, Pittman has clearly demonstrated that his teams are at a major disadvantage in close games, which is a huge problem for a program that fits in the lower-middle of the SEC in terms of talent most years.
The most likely result is probably not moving until after the season, at which time you’ll see a sort of “forced retirement” that allows Pittman to save face by not making it seem that he was fired. If Pittman falls four games below .500 this season (so 2-6, 3-7, or 4-8), the university saves about $3 million on his buyout. Barring a complete collapse over the next few weeks – which I don’t think is likely – the Hogs probably win at least two of their next five games, which means they can’t fall to that mark until the final three games of LSU-Texas-Missouri.
There are two complicating factors here that could force an earlier move.
Yurachek’s fate
First is the status of athletic director Hunter Yurachek. Fans have found numerous angles to criticize Yurachek: first, he stubbornly opposed the rise of NIL, which left Arkansas well behind other SEC schools in setting up collectives and funding players (not all of that is his fault, as those who have followed the situation closely know). And second, he’s the one who hired Pittman in December 2019 after largely whiffing in his attempts to garner any interest from other candidates, and more egregiously, he’s the one who negotiated a large contract extension and salary increase after the 2021 season, increasing Pittman’s salary to more than $6.3 million per year and allowing the 3-7 record in 2020 to not count against Pittman’s buyout reduction clause. That means Pittman could finish his sixth season with a 6-6 record, still have a losing record for his six seasons, and Arkansas still would owe him more than $10 million in buyout money should they fire him because, by the contract, he hasn’t lost enough to reduce it.
If the Board of Trustees does not trust Yurachek to make the next hire, then they need to fire him first and get another AD in place by November. Recall that’s exactly what the Board did in 2017, firing Jeff Long in November and allowing interim AD Julie Cromer-Peoples to initiate the coaching search. Of course, that didn’t exactly work out: the search had focused on Chad Morris by the time Yurachek came into office. That said, it’s not November yet. If Yurachek is fired in the next couple weeks, a new athletic director might be in place by the time the season ends.
On the other hand, Yurachek has an ace up his sleeve. If the Board doesn’t trust him to conduct an external search, what if an external search isn’t necessary? That is to say, what if Yurachek moved now and fired Pittman, named an interim, and the interim earned the job over the rest of the season?
Petrino’s fate
The single best argument for an in-season firing of Pittman is if anyone – either the biggest donors, the Board, or Yurachek – sincerely believes that Arkansas could end up hiring Bobby Petrino as the next head football coach, then giving him a shot this season is an ideal trial. That could come as soon as this Sunday, since an open week awaits after Notre Dame. If the Hogs fail to make a bowl under Petrino’s leadership, then you shrug your shoulders and start looking for other candidates. If the Hogs play significantly better, then you have your guy.
Ultimately, whether Petrino is a candidate is going to come down to money. The top seven teams in On3’s transfer portal rankings are off to a 27-0 start, including 21-6 against the spread. Most of those teams have strong NIL operations (Oregon, Ole Miss, LSU) or saw large influxes of cash from donors excited about the direction of the program (Texas Tech, Miami, Indiana). Arkansas isn’t in the first group, but if Indiana donors can pour an incremental $2.1 million NIL (per On3’s numbers) into their team because they are confident in the head coach, then there’s a clear lesson.
Don’t take it from me only, here’s Yahoo’s Dan Wolken earlier this week:
“Arkansas fans who have that kind of money don’t think it would be well-spent on a team coached by Sam Pittman.”
There are lots of great mid-major candidates out there this year. Tulane’s Jon Sumrall is probably a true star, while North Texas’s Eric Morris, Texas State’s GJ Kinne, and even UTSA’s Jeff Traylor are all strong candidates. But while Arkansas could probably replace Pittman and get slightly better game management, which would equate to an extra win or two per year, if the next hire doesn’t fully excite the people who have money, the results will be minor.
That’s mostly what you’re looking at when you’re thinking of Petrino. Big donors jumped on board with Calipari, but would they prefer Petrino or Sumrall? And that’s assuming you can even get Sumrall: four Power Four jobs are already open (UCLA, Virginia Tech, Stanford, Oklahoma State), and Florida is likely to open as well by season’s end.
So if Yurachek is doing his job, he already knows what he needs to know. Arkansas donors will tell him how excited they’d be about Petrino versus any of the mid-major candidates, and agents in the coaching community will tell him how likely those mid-major candidates are to consider the Hogs. If the donors would give more to see a Petrino-coached team, and Sumrall is aiming higher than a team “not equipped to win a national championship” (Yurachek’s words), then making a coaching change sooner rather than later might be in his best interest.
Meet the Irish
Meanwhile, the season marches on, and this is a big one. It’s the first-ever meeting between Arkansas and Notre Dame.
The Irish are coached by Marcus Freeman in his fourth full season (he coached the Fiesta Bowl following the 2021 season) after taking over when Brian Kelly left for LSU. His tenure has been confusing, to say the least. He’s 34-12 overall. The 12 losses include losses to Marshall and 3-9 Stanford in 2022, and a home loss to Northern Illinois last year. That NIU loss was the only loss for the Irish until they fell to Ohio State in the national championship game.
So they broke through last year and won some big games to get to the championship, but horrible losses have still been an issue.
This game features two teams that are a combined 0-4 in one-score games this year, so something’s probably going to give. The Irish defense has also been raked over the coals, allowing 41 points to Texas A&M and then 30 to Purdue.
Model pick: Arkansas 34, Notre Dame 25. Because this season can’t get crazy enough.
Obligatory note: sample size is still small (just three FBS games for each team, and just two other FBS games for all of Arkansas and Notre Dame’s opponents), so all the numbers you see here are more directional than strict.
When Notre Dame has the ball
Star quarterback Riley Leonard is gone after throwing for 2,861 yards in his final college season, so freshman CJ Carr is in charge of the Irish offense. Carr’s been fine so far, but the real strength of Notre Dame is the running back position. Jeremiyah Love rushed for 1,125 yards on 6.9 per carry with 17 touchdowns last year. He’s been a little quieter so far this year (285 yards, 5.5 per carry, three touchdowns), but he remains the focal point of the offense.
Who are you going to believe? The advanced stats, or your lyin’ eyes? On paper, Arkansas’ defense is merely bad, but not horrible. The Hogs rank 56th out of 136 FBS teams in EPA per Play allowed. If you’ve watched this defense play, you don’t get the sense that the Hogs have the 56th-best defense in the country. But these numbers are opponent-adjusted, and our model thinks that Ole Miss and Memphis have juggernaut offenses. Do they actually? I’m not sure about that, but if they do, then the Hogs should start to have better results against more average offenses, like Notre Dame’s.
The Irish are fairly conservative on offense, and they’ll emphasize remaining on schedule. They rank 16th in leverage rate, eighth in marginal third down conversions, and first in points per scoring opportunity. They stay on-schedule, keep the chains moving, and finish their good drives with points.
On the other hand, the Irish go backward too often (108th in havoc rate) and aren’t overly productive on early downs (102nd in EPA per play on standard downs). Their 15% turnover rate includes just three live-ball turnovers (two interceptions and a fumble) and four failed fourth downs.
Arkansas’ run defense got absolutely gashed by Memphis to the tune of more than 300 non-sack yards. The bad news is that Notre Dame’s run game is a team strength. The run blocking is so-so, and way too many runs go backwards, but Love and backfield mate Jadarian Price are both threats to rip off a huge run at any time. ProFootballFocus charts Love with 3.79 yards after contact per rush and Price at 3.30 this season, which is terrifying. Kewan Lacy of Ole Miss is only at 3.03 on the year. These guys are not fun to tackle at all.
If you want something to hope for, here it is. Arkansas shut down the Ole Miss run game but got gashed by Memphis, but those two teams were total opposites in terms of how they generate rushing yards. Ole Miss relies on an elite back who breaks tackles and creates yards after contact, while Memphis relies on good line play to create yards before contact for a quicker back. Notre Dame will be more like Ole Miss in that the holes will be small and the running backs will have to do most of the work.
Compare the PFF run block grades for these three teams:
- Ole Miss: 54
- Memphis: 71
- Notre Dame: 57
PFF also grades the run game independent of blocking. Here are those grades:
- Ole Miss: 85
- Memphis: 80
- Notre Dame: 79
PFF is far from perfect, but hopefully you get the idea. In addition to this distinction, Notre Dame will not present much of a quarterback run threat, unlike Ole Miss or Memphis. Carr has 10 non-sack carries for 46 yards all season.
Looking at the pass game numbers, it appears that once again, Notre Dame’s offensive line is a little disappointing. Carr is being sacked on 6% of his dropbacks, and PFF grades the Irish pass blocking with an ugly 52 grade, worse than either Ole Miss or Memphis. However, there’s a caveat there.
I’m not a defensive coordinator, but here’s guessing that Travis Williams is going to bring the house and everyone in it when the Irish drop back to pass. That’s what everyone else is doing. Carr has been blitzed on a whopping 47% of his dropbacks this season, and his numbers against the blitz are fairly pedestrian: 21 of 35 for 251 yards and a touchdown, an interception, and three sacks. Carr checks down to just 8.4 average air yards per pass attempt when he sees a blitz (for comparison, Taylen Green goes up to 10.6 average air yards per attempt against the blitz), which limits big pass plays.
The Irish receiving corps is deep and solid. Outside receivers Malachi Fields and Jordan Faison are the top two targets, but watch for tight end Eli Raridon, who has nine catches for 182 yards this year. He will align as a traditional tight end or in the slot for a spread look. Notre Dame spreads the ball around really well and they don’t have one guy you can focus on.
What to watch for
Tackling and run fits will be a big emphasis. If the Hogs can get run stoppers into position and not miss a ton of tackles in the hole, they should be able to limit what the Irish can do. If the pass rush causes problems, this could end up being a strong day. On the other hand, the Irish offense has a very high floor. They’ll move the ball, stay in manageable down-and-distance situations, and finish drives well. I’d be surprised if they end up with fewer than 24 points, but a solid day from the defense might hold them to not much more than that.
When Arkansas has the ball
Freeman is a defensive guy, so he’s probably not loving what he’s seeing from his unit this year. Notre Dame’s defense has had issues in all three games.
On the one hand, no other team has already faced three Power Four quarterbacks. On the other hand, Purdue’s two quarterbacks, Ryan Browne and Razorback legend Malachi Singleton, combined to throw for 303 yards and three touchdowns last week.
The Irish have been hurt through the air (108th in EPA per pass allowed) and on early downs (83rd in EPA per standard down, 92nd in early conversion). They are not forcing negative plays at all (123rd), and as a result, they are allowing opponents to chew up yards (87th in available yards allowed) and create promising drives (105th in scoring opportunity rate). They are much better on third down.
Irish run fits have been okay this year. They’re not creating negative runs at all (118th) but their situational run defense has been fine (12th in rushing success rate allowed) and they are not getting blown off the ball (73rd in runs of 4+ yards, 57th in runs of 10+). PFF actually gives them a generous 84 grade in run defense, which is certainly better than these numbers suggest.
The Hogs have obviously run it really well this year, which is part of the reason why the second half against Memphis was such a shame. It’s all scheme and athletes: PFF grades the Hog run game at 90, but run blocking at just 62. Notre Dame’s inability to create negative plays may put the Irish on their heels a little bit. And although Love and Price’s YAC numbers look good, Mike Washington (3.76) and Braylen Russell (3.24) are right there with them, and everyone is looking up at Green’s ridiculous 4.45 yards after contact per rush. If those numbers hold on Saturday, the Irish’s 34% rushing success rate allowed is going to get blown out of the water.
If the Hogs are able to generate some big runs, things will get dicey for the Irish defense really quick. The Irish aren’t getting a ton of pressure, and all three quarterbacks they’ve faced had strong games.
Miami’s Carson Beck completed 20 of 30 passes for 205 yards and two touchdowns. He was pressured just six times in 32 dropbacks and sacked once. Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed completed just 17 of 37 passes, but those completions went for 360 yards (more than 20 yards per completion). The Irish pressured him 17 times on his 40 dropbacks but failed to sack him, even though he held onto the ball for more than three seconds per pass attempt on average. And last week, Browne was 21 of 35 for 250 yards. He was pressured only 12 times in 41 dropbacks but the Irish managed three sacks against the pocket passser.
Reed’s game obviously stands out. He’s dual-threat like Green, and he plays in an offense that loves to put the ball down the field. His average pass attempt traveled more than 14 yards downfield against Notre Dame.
Defensive personnel
In terms of personnel, pressure for the Irish is going to come from the defensive ends, Bryce Young, Boubacar Traore, and Junior Tuihalamaka. They don’t get much of a pass rush from anywhere else. The linebackers are primarily run stoppers, and inside linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa has a run defense grade of 90 from PFF.
The big availability question for Saturday is the status of star cornerback Leonard Moore. He’s been impressive this year: PFF says he’s been targeted 11 times, allowing six receptions for 62 yards with three forced incompletions and an interception. However, he was injured against Purdue and is listed as Questionable for Saturday. If he can’t go – or he’s limited – that would be a huge loss. All of Notre Dame’s other cornerbacks have struggled in coverage, with other starter Christian Gray allowing 13 receptions on 21 targets for 162 yards this year.
Keys to the game
Get the run game going. The Irish have had issues in coverage, but the Hogs do not want to be one-dimensional like they were for much of the second half against Memphis. It will be interesting to see if he get a heavier dose of Braylen Russell after he had only four carries last week. The Hogs need to ride whoever gets hot.
Pass rush must have an effect. Carr is a fine quarterback, but he is a freshman and he hasn’t been great against the blitz. Travis Williams likes to bring pressure, and I think that’s what the Hogs need to do, even if it means leaving some iffy matchups in the secondary. In order to keep from getting burned, the pass rush has to get there against a quarterback that isn’t overly mobile.
Arkansas and Notre Dame kick off at 11 am in Fayetteville. The game will be televised on ABC.