That should just about do it. Arkansas’ 32-31 loss to Memphis likely will serve as the final straw in the Sam Pittman era. The Razorbacks blew an 18-point lead and then, for the second straight game, fumbled while deep in opponent territory on the final drive.
The complete lack of composure and toughness down the stretch has been the defining feature of the Pittman era. Arkansas has been almost impossibly bad in tight games in Pittman’s six seasons. The Hogs are just 4-33 under Pittman when trailing at any point in the fourth quarter. Many of those losses were back-and-forth games where the final “back” was not followed up with any “forth” by the Razorbacks.
Consider this stat, courtesy of Jim Harris:
So from 1998 to 2011, Arkansas was 34-25 in one-score games. Since 2012, the Hogs are 17-43. The margin between being a strong program and being a weak one is just so small.
When you combine the two stats – 4-33 when trailing in the fourth quarter, 7-19 in one-score games – it gets even worse. The four wins when trailing in the fourth include the 2022 Missouri State game, which didn’t end as a one-score game. The seven one-score wins include four with zero fourth-quarter lead changes: 2020 Mississippi State, 2021 LSU, 2022 Cincinnati, and 2022 Kansas. So in five-plus seasons, Pittman’s Hogs have only had three wins against FBS teams in games that included a fourth-quarter lead change.
At some point, you have to win. You can’t just look good for three quarters. You can’t just compile advanced stats, like ESPN’s FPI, which actually moved the Hogs up to 25th after this weekend. The margin of error in the modern SEC is so tiny. Coaches used to be able to get away with bumbling incompetence, but the modern game leaves no room for that. Decision’s like Pittman’s to try a 51-yard field goal on 4th-and-2 on the opening drive against Ole Miss will cost you dearly.
I wrote this after the Ole Miss game:
Let’s not put too much blame on Brown. After all, he wasn’t on the team for the previous 17 one-score losses, and recent history suggests that there were plenty of other Jalen Browns on the team ready to fumble this game away in a critical moment. Ultimately, that’s been the problem in the Pittman era. This loss cannot be blamed on NIL. This is just another Arkansas team that lacks the whatever it is and falls apart in big moments.
Sure enough, this week’s Jalen Brown was Mike Washington, who had played really well on the final drive right up until his fumble lost the game. Again, there were others.
Sudden reversals of fortune are possible. As we’ll discuss later in the week, the advanced stats are not high on Notre Dame at all, grading them worse than Ole Miss or Memphis. The Hogs absolutely can win that one. Every remaining team on the schedule has weaknesses. Ole Miss might go 11-1 and Trinidad Chambliss may be the real deal. Memphis may go 12-0. The Hogs might be fine. But there’s a clear track record here, and there’s reason to believe that even if no one lets go of the rope, this isn’t the last one-score game the Hogs will lose this year. And when the likely 5-7 final record comes, that will be the end of the Pittman era.
Advanced stats
A week after allowing 350 passing yards to a quarterback in his first FBS start, the Hogs were gashed on the ground by Memphis. The tackling was atrocious, and the Hogs were unable to finish plays. That’s the main reason Memphis ended with a better win chance. They were much more consistent in moving the football, something that the Noise-Adjusted Score accounts for.
The Hogs gained 500 yards, averaged 7.6 yards per play, and had seven of 13 drives get inside the opposing 40. On the other hand, the Hogs allowed a season-high 11 havoc plays, a figure that includes three back-breaking turnovers. And then there were the season-high four three-and-outs.
Memphis went backwards a lot (15 havoc plays) and had four three-and-outs and two turnovers, but they averaged a solid 6.8 yards per play.
The Hogs came in with the nation’s top third down offense, and Memphis’s third down defense was a team weakness… so of course the Hogs were bad on third down. Teams that lose tend to find ways to lose.
Defensively, the Hogs allowed Memphis to be just good enough across the board: the Tigers had a solid 57% early conversion rate, a solid +10% third down conversion rate, and a solid 48% passing downs success rate. None of those are amazing, but they are all good enough to win.
Arkansas’ defense is ghastly. There’s not much more than can be said. Once again, this isn’t an NIL issue: the main culprits on Saturday were linebackers Xavian Sorey and Stephen Dix. These aren’t new adds that the Hogs had to skimp on because they lacked funding for the defense; these are returning starters who were supposed to be a strength of the defense. Yet Memphis rolled up 313 rushing yards, 8.2 per carry, and a 34% explosive run rate.
The air game was fine for the Hogs, who continue to protect well. A slightly higher success rate would have nicer, and it seemed that Taylen Green got rattled a bit at times, when calming down and throwing shorter passes would have been the better option.
Memphis’s top rushers – quarterback Brendon Lewis and running back Sutton Smith – combined for 25 non-sack carries for 273 yards. That is incredibly embarrassing for the Arkansas defense.
Offensively, this was Green’s first game this year with negative Rushing EPA. Memphis focused on keeping him in the pocket and making him win with his arm. He threw for more than 300 yards but also tossed a couple of picks. Arkansas’ offense mostly stalled when the run game wasn’t working.
I am not sure why Braylen Russell didn’t get more snaps. His four carries resulted in 47 yards and he looked really good. Washington actually struggled until the final drive. I get that Washington offers significantly more explosiveness (along with better pass pro), but when you’re trying to protect a big lead, a power back like Russell might do more to wear the defense down.
Up next
Arkansas hosts Notre Dame in what we figured would be a big game before the season started. Now both teams have two losses. With a bye week to follow, a blowout loss might be sufficient grounds for Hunter Yurachek to make an in-season move. However, I don’t really expect a blowout loss. I think Notre Dame is better than the advanced stats suggest, but I think they have weaknesses, and I doubt this team has let go of the rope just yet. Another close game seems likely, and a win would not surprise me at all.