The Razorback basketball team is back from an uninspiring trip to the Bahamas. Arkansas went 1-2, beating a off-the-bubble Stanford team in double overtime and then losing to two good teams, Memphis and North Carolina. Unfortunately, there are not many positives to take away.
The first game saw the Hogs play great defense but struggle on offense. But in the last two games, attempts to get the offense going led to the defense collapsing, as the Hogs surrendered 80+ in both games, a rarity for an Eric Musselman-coached team.
The Hogs are in some trouble right now. They do a few things well – getting to the line, scoring in halfcourt offense – but the bottom has fallen out on several key stats: transition offense, shot selection, transition defense, and defending the 3-point line. The pieces are there for this to be a good team, but the Hogs have to find some continuity on offense and confidence on defense for that to happen.
Arkansas 77, Stanford 74 (2OT)
This was an ugly game, but Arkansas at least managed to dominate the halfcourt. As has been the trend, the Hogs were forced to play very slow (19.5 seconds per possession) and were outscored in transition.
Horrible shooting was the main culprit here, but the Hogs saved themselves by creating a ton of opportunities. Arkansas shot poorly from all three levels, but managed a 15% turnover rate and solid 40% offensive rebound rate while limiting Stanford in both stats.
Memphis 84, Arkansas 79
The bottom of the defense fell out in the second game. The Hogs once again lost the battle in transition, but for the first time this season, they were also outscored in halfcourt.
Arkansas created more opportunities and shot basically the same percentage on field goals (57% to 56%), but six extra free throws from technicals and flagrants provided the difference.
North Carolina 87, Arkansas 72
The three-day role reversal came to a conclusion on Day 3, when the Hogs actually won the battle in transition but got destroyed in halfcourt. The Hog defense fell apart in the second half and UNC ended up with 66 halfcourt points.
Neither team had good shot selection, but UNC destroyed Arkansas on the offensive glass, made their 3-pointers, and lived at the free throw line. A not-terrible shooting day wasn’t nearly enough to save the Razorbacks.
There are a lot of trends between these. The two probable NCAA Tournament teams both shredded Arkansas’ previously-strong halfcourt defense, which means that the Razorback D doesn’t really do anything particularly well at this point. And Arkansas fouled Memphis and UNC like there was no tomorrow, giving them a ton of chances at the line. Arkansas’ halfcourt defense and defensive rebounding are still fine for the whole season, but there’s nothing Arkansas is really good at right now.
Offensively, Arkansas’ biggest issue is point guard play. The Razorbacks aren’t pushing the pace and aren’t winning in transition because they lack a capable distributor. Since the opener against Alcorn, the Hogs are assisting on just 25% of made baskets, which is horrible. Their shot selection has also been bad, as they’ve settled for far too many midrange jumpers. A good midrange jumper can be deadly against the right look, but you cannot live and die by them. The Hogs actually hit from midrange really well against both Memphis and UNC, and it didn’t matter, because those shots just aren’t efficient enough. You have to either get to the rim or take a 3-pointer to succeed, and it’s hard to get those without a good point guard.
Roster breakdown
As we feared before the season, Arkansas has no stars. No dominant leader. The Hogs have a ton of pieces, but they are struggling to piece together a consistent 5-man lineup that’s actually good. Here’s a quick rundown of the xRAPM numbers for the regulars (beware: the sample size is very, very small, so the numbers here should be taken as directional, not gospel). Players are ordered by wins above replacement (WAR):
- Tramon Mark (94 grade, 1.9 WAR). Mark has been incredible. He leads the team with 65% true shooting, he’s getting to the line at a high rate (29% of shot chances in the arc), and he’s turning it over on just 7% of his possessions. He grades as Arkansas’ best offensive player and second-best defender. The only issue with Mark is that despite being the main ballhandler, he isn’t a point guard. He’s sitting on just 1.5 assists per 40 minutes, so he’s not setting his teammates up for shots.
- Khalif Battle (87 grade, 1.3 WAR). He’s cooled down significantly, but Battle grades as Arkansas’ second-best offensive player and, surprisingly, third-best defender. He’s still shooting 64% true shooting (second), getting to the line at an insane 75% clip (first), and turning it over on just 13% of possessions. Defensively, he doesn’t make much happen (worst on the team in steals per 40), but Arkansas is allowing just 95.8 points per 100 possessions as a team with Battle on the floor, best on the team among top 9 minutes players.
- Trevon Brazile (72 grade, 0.8 WAR). I would say Brazile has been a disappointment. He grades fourth on offense and sixth on defense. Brazile’s 2.5 blocks per 40 minutes aren’t bad, but that trails both Makhi Mitchell and Chandler Lawson, and when he’s on the floor, opponents are having little trouble getting to the rim. And all the technicals and flagrants are bad looks. Hopefully he gets this turned around.
- El Ellis (76 grade, 0.7 WAR). Right now, Ellis grades as Arkansas’ second-worst defender, but he’s the third-best offensive player. His shot isn’t falling (just 52% true shooting), but he leads the team in assist rate by a mile and despite what your eyes may be telling you, his turnover rate is just 17%, which isn’t great, but it’s not awful. Assists are highly correlated to team offensive success, so I tend to think he needs to be playing more.
- Layden Blocker (74 grade, 0.4 WAR). Here’s your highest-graded defender. Blocker is going to be really good. He leads the team by a mile with 3.3 steals per 40 minutes, and he’s third in offensive rebounding (also 3.3 per 40). He’s low-usage (just 15%) and shooting a poor 51% true shooting, but he’s not turning it over and provides value as a defender.
- Makhi Mitchell (70 grade, 0.3 WAR). I’m a bit disappointed with Mitchell so far. Despite shooting an excellent 64% true shooting and leading the team in shot block rate, his offense grades very poorly. He turns it over 20% of his possessions (second-worst) and averages just 2.3 offensive rebounds per 40 minutes, which is bad for a center. Defensively, he’s not good, but his shot-blocking and rebounding can somewhat make up for the times he looks lackadaisical.
- Chandler Lawson (55 grade, 0.0 WAR). Lawson is about what we expected. He paces the team with 10.8 rebounds per 40 minutes and is second in blocked shots. When he does shoot, he hits at a solid 61% eFG% (tied for second). But he is extremely low-usage (just 13%) and he’s the least likely Hog to record an assist. And remember from above, assists are highly correlated with offensive success. Right now, he actively hurts Arkansas’ offensive and isn’t really helping the defense unless he has a favorable matchup.
- Devo Davis (46 grade, -0.2 WAR). Devo… man. Team-worst 43% true shooting, second-lowest-graded offensive player, lowest-graded defender. He leads the team in minutes while grading as Arkansas’ worst player. I hate to say it, but he needs to cede minutes to Ellis and Blocker until we figure out how to get March Devo on the floor.
- Jeremiah Davenport (41 grade, -0.2 WAR). Thanks to a dismal 37% true shooting, including 22% from beyond the arc, Davenport is mostly hurting the Hogs while being out there. The bright spot of his season was the UNC game, where he was actually +1 in 23 minutes (the Hogs were minus-16 in the other 17 minutes). Maybe he eventually figures it out, but right now, things aren’t working.
Two guys that have both played 28 minutes this year but might should play more are Jalen Graham and Joseph Pinion. Graham has been hurt and didn’t make the trip to the Bahamas. Back spasms don’t usually go away on their own, so he’s likely to be limited for a while, if not all season. Graham’s minimal playing time has produced an enormous 15.3 rebounds per 40 minutes, a solid 58% eFG%, and zero turnovers. If he can get healthy, he might be valuable. Pinion’s minimal minutes have produced 62% true shooting, 2.8 steals per 40 minutes, and zero turnovers (he has yet to turn it over in his entire career). His small-sample-size grade is 94 overall, tied with Mark for best on the team. Arkansas is allowing just 87.8 points per 100 possessions with Pinion in the lineup; that’s better than all nine guys listed above, although again, sample size is an issue, as most of Pinion’s minutes came against Alcorn. Then again, given how Arkansas’ main shooters are shooting from beyond the arc, if Pinion isn’t a total liability on D, he might could get more minutes.
Up Next
Arkansas faces Duke on Wednesday in the ACC-SEC Challenge.
Roster-wise, the main thing to watch will be Mark’s recovery. Reading the tea leaves, he’s not going to play against Duke. If Mark were healthy, I’d advocate for Ellis and Blocker to cut into Devo’s minutes, but I’m not sure how aggressive you can be with that switch while Mark is out.
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